Question: Are we on the brink of a new global order? This is contingent upon everyone's ability to recognize shared existential threats. The alternative will be determined by what humanity chooses today in terms of policies and decisions regarding the economy, technology, climate, and peace.
Since Francis Fukuyama presented his vision of the "End of History" and the dominance of liberal values with the fall of the last strongholds of communism (the Soviet Union) in the early 1990s, there has been widespread belief that the world has entered an era of international cooperation and democratic reforms, and that the United States would assume the role of guarantor for a stable global security.
However, over the last three decades, shortcomings in this vision have become apparent; from the genocide in Rwanda and Bosnia, to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, culminating in the genocidal war in Gaza, the inability to prevent massacres and protect civilians, to the failure to build states that respect freedoms and human rights, confidence in the effectiveness of post-Cold War institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization has been shaken.
Today, in the year 2025, with the rise of extreme right-wing politics in America represented by Trump and his team, questions about whether the global order is on the verge of change are increasing. There is no doubt that the relative decline of the United States and the rapid rise of China have undermined the previous system based on unipolarity, creating new dynamics. However, this transformation is not merely a traditional competition between two great powers but is accompanied by a comprehensive redistribution of power tools globally.
The Decline of Unipolarity and the Rise of Multipolarity:
During the era of American unipolarity that began in the early 1990s, it seemed that the values of democracy and free markets would spread without bounds, supported by a surge in technological and media globalization. Nonetheless, events over the past two decades have shattered these dreams; including wars in the Middle East, a series of global financial crises, climate crises, and the growing trade and technological tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Today, countries like China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey are seeking new paths for regional cooperation. In the BRICS group, we see outlines of financial and commercial cooperation parallel to traditional institutions. Although these groupings have not yet formulated a comprehensive alternative to the existing financial system, they have come to express the frustration of developing countries with a model they perceive as unfair, benefiting the interests of wealthy powers while shackling the economies of poor nations with harsh debt conditions and reforms.
Economic Crises and the Collapse of Hyper-globalization:
The last few decades have witnessed a series of financial crises, including the Asian crisis (1997), the global crisis (2008), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), and the subsequent economic fluctuations. These crises have prompted an increasing number of countries to rethink the degree of liberalization of their financial and trade markets and the wisdom of their excessive reliance on globalized supply chains.
At the same time, trade tensions with China have reinforced protectionist tendencies within the United States and Europe; tariffs have increased, and calls for domestic manufacturing have grown louder. While this trend does not completely erase globalization, it may lead to the formation of more homogeneous regional economic groups.
Technology: Huge Opportunities and Legislative Risks:
Developments in artificial intelligence and digital technologies promise to create a boom in the health, education, industry, and other sectors. However, they also raise enormous concerns about privacy and cybersecurity, as well as the growing digital divide between countries and communities. Cross-border digital interventions could threaten national infrastructures and destabilize international stability.
Climate Change: The Tough Test of Global Governance:
Without a doubt, the biggest test facing the international system today is the ability of governments and institutions to contain the existential threats posed by global warming and severe climate changes. Even after climate agreements (like the Paris Agreement), government actions still fall short of ambition. Extreme climate events reveal the fragility of infrastructures in many countries and highlight the available funding's inability to meet the needs of poorer nations or islands at risk of disappearing.
The disruptions in agricultural supply chains and crop failures in some regions of Africa and South Asia exacerbate the migration and famine crisis, increasing the pressure on European and American economies. These crises clearly indicate that the current rules of the international system and the voluntary operational patterns in climate issues may not be sufficient to spare the world the worst scenarios.
The Russia-Ukraine War: A Genocide in Gaza:
The Russian-Ukrainian war and the "Israeli" war on Gaza have exposed the significant gap in the application of international justice and the failure of United Nations institutions to prevent wars, as well as their clear inability to pursue war criminals. Moreover, the United Nations has become a tool to facilitate such crimes due to the five permanent members’ monopoly on the veto power, leading to complex questions about this global organization's ability to achieve international peace and security.
The positions taken by the United States have posed an unprecedented challenge to international will, as the American stance shifted from supporting Ukraine to pressuring it with Trump's rise to power. Additionally, the new U.S. administration's calls for the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and the practice of ethnic cleansing against its people represented one of the most dangerous points illustrating the current international system's failure to confront American and Western dominance.
Towards What Future Are We Heading?
In light of these multiple challenges, the world seems to be at a crossroads that may lead to a more fragmented or more cooperative global system. On one hand, there are indications that major powers will not choose direct military confrontation but may pursue a path of negative competition through economic sanctions, regional alliances, and trade deals. On the other hand, everyone has recognized that transnational dangers cannot be faced by any single country alone.
The United Nations, despite its weaknesses, is still capable of playing the role of international coordinator when there is a shared political will. However, today's world has become larger than just five countries; this calls for comprehensive reform of this organization and acknowledgment of the existence of influential international and regional powers that cannot be ignored. We may also see side initiatives among regional blocs capable of building economic or political safety nets when the global system fails to respond.
But the central question today is: will these initiatives transform into strong global institutional frameworks that redefine the concept of international cooperation beyond the legacy of the twentieth century, or will the international system remain in a state of wobbling between conflicting poles that lack a unifying vision in economics, collective security, or climate?
We must recognize that the current transformations do not resemble a complete collapse nor the birth of a new system all at once; rather, they are akin to a slow movement of centers of gravity, or as some have described it, "change without revolution." In this context, emerging powers remain keen on maintaining the relativity of sovereignty and preventing their subjugation to traditional international institutions, while Western countries attempt to preserve the pillars of the old system with adjustments that secure their influence.
The question of whether we are on the verge of a new global system depends on everyone's ability to recognize common existential threats and whether major powers will choose to engage in engineering an open and inclusive system, or if they will continue to be driven by their narrow, immediate interests. Even if victorious liberalism has failed to fulfill its previous promises, the alternative will be determined by the policies and decisions humanity chooses today regarding economy, technology, climate, and peace.
