A Fundamental Shift in Global Power Dynamics

The world is witnessing a fundamental shift in the balance of power, with the decline of American unilateral dominance in favor of the rise of China as a global power. This transformation is not a recent phenomenon but the result of decades of economic policies, cautious political strategies, and rapid technological advancements that have made Beijing a formidable competitor to Washington. How has this ascent been achieved, and what are its implications for the international order?

From Cooperation to Competition: The Beginnings of China's Ascent

The meeting between U.S. President Richard Nixon and Chinese leader Mao Zedong in the early 1970s marked a turning point in relations between the two countries. At that time, China had poor relations with the Soviet Union and India and was suffering from internal turmoil and widespread famines, prompting it to seek economic openness to benefit from American technology and investments. Consequently, the United States began supplying production lines to China and providing aid to support its industrial and agricultural sectors, paving the way for what became known as "socialism with Chinese characteristics," which the West viewed as a form of "state capitalism."

Strategic Shifts in U.S. and Chinese Policies

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States realized that China's growth could get out of control and that the goal underpinning its relationship with China—dismantling the communist bloc—was no longer relevant, especially as China's economy continued to grow remarkably. With the emergence of the United States as the unchallenged dominant power, the term "unipolarity" was coined to reflect this new reality.

Despite growing American concerns about China's rise, U.S. priorities in the post-Cold War era focused on the Middle East, where Washington fought several wars, notably in Iraq and Afghanistan, depleting its resources and diverting attention from Asian developments.

China's Transformation into a Global Power

China, on the other hand, exploited this vacuum to bolster its economic and military capabilities, benefiting from the influx of American and Western companies and capital into China, which relocated many factories and production lines there, taking advantage of government incentives, low production costs—primarily through cheap and skilled Chinese labor—strong infrastructure, and a large domestic market. Additionally, China leveraged its investments in U.S. Treasury bonds and its position as America's primary export market.

With the election of President Donald Trump, U.S. policy towards Asia in general, and China in particular, changed, with Trump canceling several agreements aimed at integrating China into the global system on American terms, opting for direct trade confrontation instead. Despite imposing high tariffs on Chinese products, this approach did not yield the desired results, as China became less reliant on the American market and more capable of diversifying its exports.

The Belt and Road Initiative: Expanding Chinese Influence

The Belt and Road Initiative is China's most prominent tool for enhancing its global influence. This initiative, which aims to revive the historic Silk Road through massive infrastructure investments, provides China with political and economic leverage in over 140 countries. China is no longer content with developing its internal capabilities but seeks to build a global economic network that makes it a key player in international trade.

Technology: China's Secret Weapon

In addition to economic power, China aims to dominate future technological sectors through the "Made in China 2025" initiative, which seeks to lead in areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biotechnology. This strategy has raised concerns in the United States, which responded by imposing restrictions on exporting advanced technologies to Chinese companies, notably Huawei, and attempting to ban some applications like TikTok.

Despite this, China remains ahead in some areas, such as holding 40% of global patents in artificial intelligence compared to only 22% for the United States. It is estimated that Chinese engineers account for over 50% of AI specialists worldwide, a fact that was evident when the AI program "Deep Seek" was recently announced, leading to the largest stock market loss in U.S. history.

The Global South: A Base of Support for China's Ascent

China understands that enhancing its influence is not limited to competing with the United States but extends to building new alliances in the Global South. Through the BRICS organization, China seeks to reduce the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade, with trade exchanges among BRICS members in local currencies rising to 30% compared to just 5% in 2015. China presents itself as an alternative to the Western financial system, with its investments in developing countries exceeding $200 billion in 2023, making it a key partner for these countries in development and infrastructure.

Challenges and Constraints on China's Ascent

Despite China's successes, it faces numerous challenges that may impede its ambitions, notably U.S. economic sanctions, restrictions on technology exports, and media campaigns aimed at casting doubt on Beijing's policies. Additionally, there is the challenge of economic interdependence, as China's economy relies on mutual dependence with the West. Despite China's efforts to diversify its markets, 40% of its exports still go to Western markets.

Internally, China also faces challenges such as declining population growth rates, rising local corporate debt, weak middle-class consumption, and empowering internal regions, which it seeks to address.

Toward a New World Order

Undoubtedly, China's ascent represents a radical shift in the international order, making it impossible to speak of a unipolar world, especially given the continuous American failure to consider the interests of other countries and its aggressive policy prioritizing American interests often without any ethical considerations. Nevertheless, several questions need to be considered:

• Can China transform into an equal global power to the United States?
• Will this happen peacefully?
• Will the new order be more just?
• Will this be in the interest of the Arab world, or are we facing the replacement of one hegemon with another?

Despite the fundamental differences between China's cultural and civilizational experience and that of the West, and thus Chinese behavior will not be a replica of Western experience, the impact of this rise on the Arab world largely depends on the inherent strength of Arab countries and their elevation to the level of a competent partner for China. This necessitates that these countries prepare adequately for the coming phase.

China's transformation into a global power depends on its ability to achieve a delicate balance between its global ambitions and internal challenges, and its willingness to cooperate and avoid direct confrontation with the West. Amid these changes, the world is entering a new phase of geopolitical competition that may redraw the maps of international influence for decades to come.