In August of this year, the head of Israel's National Unity party, Benny Gantz, warned of the outbreak of a civil war in Israel due to the policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In a speech broadcast on the platform “X,” Gantz said: “If we don't come to our senses, a civil war will break out here, and the truth should not be obscured.”

It might be thought that the fears of this civil war are solely due to the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle, given its central role and impact, but the roots of these fears run much deeper and stretch far beyond that.

A study released in July 2023 by the National Security Studies Institute in Tel Aviv stated that Netanyahu may resort to a multi-front confrontation to try to overcome the latest crisis that has ignited within Israeli society and to unify its ranks. This comes as warnings of civil war have increased in the political sphere since the government announced its judicial reform project in January 2023. ⁽¹⁾

The primary reason for the potential outbreak of a civil war within Israel lies in the demography of the society itself. It is an extremely diverse and multi-faceted composition, closer to being non-homogeneous, given the nature of the state's formation and origins. The state was established through the occupation of Palestinian lands, followed by waves of settlers through the inflow of Jewish immigrants from all over the world. Therefore, the main component of society is either immigrants or the descendants of immigrants, lacking a coherent identity.

This prompted Israeli governments to implement what is known as the “Melting Pot” policy since the 1950s to create a homogeneous society. However, studies emerging from within Israel in recent years have suggested that all these attempts have failed. This theory is supported by the intense tensions that the internal society is currently experiencing at social, political, and economic levels. ⁽²⁾

The society suffers from fundamental fractures in its demographic structure, the most significant of which is the religious/secular divide. This divide exists between a group of secularists on one side and another group of religious individuals on the other, each having conflicting views on the state’s general cultural identity and its form of governance. This divide forms the core of the political crises that the state has been grappling with in recent years and is reflected more recently in the crisis between the right and the left regarding their respective stances on Netanyahu's judicial reforms.

In January 2023, Minister of Justice Yariv Levin announced what he called “judicial reforms.” These reforms included undermining the powers of the Supreme Court and restricting it from annulling Knesset laws or government decisions or rulings issued by the security and military establishment through a simple majority vote in the Knesset. In exchange, the reforms granted legislative authority to both the executive and legislative branches concerning basic rights such as property, mobility, protest, and even the right to select judges for the Supreme Court.

The reforms also aimed to change the parliamentary immunity law for Knesset members, ministers, and the prime minister so they would not face investigations or trials during their term. Additionally, the reforms sought to eliminate the clauses of fraud and breach of trust in the criminal code and penalties, making politicians and government officials above the law. ⁽³⁾

These reforms are primarily supported by the ruling coalition, composed of religious and extremist nationalist parties, most notably the Likud Party, the Religious Zionism Party led by Bezalel Smotrich, the Jewish Power Party led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, and the Noam Party led by Avi Maoz. These parties believe that the judicial amendments will help preserve the Jewish identity of the state and, on the other hand, open up broader options for annexing the West Bank, or at least large parts of it, without much opposition from the courts, effectively working to entirely eliminate the Palestinian cause.

However, different societal factions from the left and center, as well as the military, civil society organizations, economists, and business leaders, vehemently opposed these reforms. They launched massive protests of a scale the society had never seen before. They argue that the current government's attempt to alter the judiciary's structure and powers is beneficial to Netanyahu and his coalition but poses a severe threat to Israel and its democracy. Some have even described it as a “political coup” that paves the way for changing the fundamental nature of the system of government. ⁽⁴⁾

The crisis of the Haredim is another manifestation of the religious/secular divide within Israeli society. The social and political privileges granted to the Haredim have become one of the crises that have affected society in recent years.

The origin of this crisis dates back to 1949, when the Knesset passed the Defense Service Law, which stipulated that military service was mandatory for all citizens. However, during the 1948 war, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion made an agreement with Haredi leaders to exempt those who dedicated themselves to studying the Torah from compulsory military service. This allowed Haredi men to “put off” their service in the Israel Defense Forces by studying in religious schools from the age of 18 until they reached a certain age when they were no longer subject to the conscription. ⁽⁵⁾

In recent years, the Haredi crisis has escalated as their numbers have doubled, and consequently, their political power has increased to the point where they have become the most crucial element in forming any government. However, in contrast to this strong political influence and the substantial financial resources they receive from the government to support their religious schools, the Haredim do not participate in the economic cycle, do not pay taxes, and do not serve in the military. This has led to widespread resentment and a general sense of social injustice among other segments of society, who view themselves as “the donkeys of the Haredim.”

In addition to this deep divide and its contemporary political manifestations, there is discrimination between Ashkenazi Jews, descended from America and Europe, and Sephardic Jews, descended from Arab or African countries. These Sephardic Jews have suffered from societal discrimination and racism in favor of the Ashkenazi, particularly in terms of salaries and positions.

Moreover, there is discrimination between Arabs and Jews. In 1948, approximately 150,000 Palestinians remained out of the 900,000 who had lived within the 1948 territories before attempts to expel them failed. These Palestinians were later forced to accept Israeli citizenship. However, the growing presence of Arabs, considering their high birth rates and their different nationality and religion, poses a threat to the Jewishness of the state. This has led to constant tensions and clashes between Arabs and Jews, especially since the Palestinians of 1948 are considered by international standards to be the indigenous people of the land.

Finally, the last major fracture within Israeli society is the class divide between the rich and the poor. A report by Israel's National Insurance Institute revealed that by the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, 21% of the population had fallen below the poverty line. ⁽⁶⁾

Amid this complex scenario, the shock of October 7 cast a shadow over the Israeli political and societal landscape, exacerbating the internal crises on all levels and further inflaming the societal flashpoints. This increases the likelihood of a civil war breaking out within Israeli society, especially when considering the easing of access to weapons and the unprecedented arming of the population, led by the Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir.

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1. Meir Elran and Kobi Michael,The Formative Socio-Political Crisis in Israel: Implications for National Security,Strategic Assessment,Volume 26 | No. 2,pp.137-145. July 2023.
2. Ismail, “Structural Transformations in Israeli Society and Their Implications,” Baheth Center for Palestinian and Strategic Studies, March 10, 2023, accessed on: February 29, 2024.
3. Meir Elran and Kobi Michael,The Formative Socio-Political Crisis in Israel: Implications for National Security,Strategic Assessment,Volume 26 | No. 2,pp.137-145. July 2023.
4. Pnina Sharvit Baruch & Bell E. Yosef,The Independence of the Courts and Israel’s National Security ,the institute for National security studies,19Feb2023.
5. The Haredi Exemption,Israel Policy Fourm,7 Jul2023,seen:7Mar2024
6. Same as reference no. 2.

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