After the fall of Bashar al-Assad, along with the collapse of the regime he built and its symbols, Syria will be left as a destroyed and economically and humanly weakened state, with widespread devastation of infrastructure and a lack of essential services. These conditions pose significant challenges to stability and make reconstruction a strategic priority for building a stable and successful state.
To achieve early recovery and successful reconstruction, it is beneficial to draw from the experiences of other countries that have suffered the ravages of war, particularly Europe's post-World War II recovery under the "Marshall Plan."
The Gulf countries could be approached for funding, while Turkey's expertise can be utilized in reconstruction efforts. Sectors like construction, energy, logistics, and furniture manufacturing are expected to take center stage, supported by Turkey's geographical proximity, international expertise, and robust logistical infrastructure.
Experts believe that realizing this ambitious scenario depends on the new Syrian government regaining control over oil, gas, and grain resources, as well as securing financial flows from both local and global financial systems.
Recovery of Oil and Gas Resources, Grain Crops, and Securing Financial Flows by the New Government
Completing these projects is not a quick process, requiring at least a decade to see the results of political steps taken. Including all sectors, Syria's economic potential is estimated at around $100 billion.
Infrastructure projects, such as roads, bridges, buildings, electrical grids, and water channels, are expected to dominate reconstruction. After addressing immediate infrastructure needs, the focus will shift to building new housing units, with Damascus and Aleppo taking priority due to their severe damage.
The reconstruction phase begins with the following steps:
1. Lifting sanctions imposed on Syria, especially in economic sectors, to enable the delivery of humanitarian aid and early recovery programs within the country.
2. Implementing transitional justice and fostering national reconciliation among the Syrian people.
3. Combating corruption within state institutions by establishing legal oversight mechanisms and holding those involved in public fund embezzlement accountable.
4. Encouraging the voluntary, safe, and dignified return of refugees to Syria, with support from host countries and humanitarian organizations.
Undoubtedly, one of the key factors aiding reconstruction in Syria is the revitalization of production, given the country's vast resources, particularly in energy such as petroleum and gas, as well as gold, potassium, agricultural products (especially grain crops), and silicon in commercially exportable quantities. These resources provide significant support for reconstruction efforts, reducing reliance on borrowing from international banks or countries that impose humiliating political or economic conditions.
Priority of Infrastructure Projects such as Roads, Buildings, Electrical Grids, and Water Channels
Accelerating reconstruction can be achieved by utilizing the expertise of the Syrian people and expediting and encouraging their swift return to the country.
Undoubtedly, achieving political stability, accelerating the establishment of constitutional institutions, and promptly transferring power to an elected civilian government without delay greatly facilitate reconstruction efforts and attract supporting nations.
The foremost priority in reconstruction is the rehabilitation and rebuilding of infrastructure, as it serves as the foundation for establishing a strong economy capable of accelerating recovery and stability.
There must be reliance on skilled professionals, adherence to a hierarchy of priorities, combating waste, administrative corruption, and nepotism, and implementing project governance. Essential service projects should take precedence over recreational ones. Furthermore, increasing employee salaries to a level sufficient to meet living costs significantly helps reduce bribery, public fund embezzlement, and administrative corruption. This is crucial for recovery and for encouraging donor and supporting countries to participate in reconstruction efforts.
Three-Phase Plan for Reconstruction
A three-phase plan can be devised to address war-related damages and initiate reconstruction:
Phase One: Damage Assessment
This phase involves a detailed assessment of damages to identify specific needs. Clearing debris and war remnants will require significant time and must be executed quickly, with donor countries bearing the costs. During this phase, losses and the costs of rebuilding housing, commercial, industrial buildings, and agricultural lands needing rehabilitation will be evaluated.
Phase Two: Cost Estimation
This involves determining the costs after assessing the damage, in collaboration with engineering firms and comprehensive consultancy services that cover all aspects, including infrastructure. The destruction has not only affected markets and residential buildings but has also extended to other sectors such as telecommunications, irrigation channels, sewage systems, and agricultural facilities—an extent of damage that was unforeseen before the war.
There are significant variations in the estimates of war damage. Preliminary assessments indicate costs ranging between $900 billion, according to the World Bank.
According to United Nations reports, Syria's reconstruction requires investments of no less than $400 billion.
Reviving the economic sectors is essential, as the agricultural and tourism sectors have suffered substantial losses. Exports have significantly declined, with agricultural and industrial output dropping to a quarter or less of previous levels—a substantial impact. Therefore, it is crucial to encourage and support small and medium-sized enterprises in particular, given their widespread presence, to combat unemployment and poverty.
Relying on Expertise, Combating Waste, Administrative Corruption, and Nepotism, and Ensuring Project Governance
It is essential to collaborate with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) by launching a platform to document institutional losses and identify their financial and legal needs to revive their operations, whether small, medium, or large.
Small enterprises should receive immediate aid ranging between $10,000 and $15,000 to enable them to quickly resume their activities.
Phase Three: Addressing Major Losses
This phase focuses on larger losses, seeking solutions for major companies through the state, donor countries, insurance firms, and international support.
Turkey's Role
According to statements from representatives of the Turkish construction sector and political and economic analysts, Turkey is expected to play a significant role in Syria's reconstruction after the war ends, the regime falls, and life returns to normal. They highlighted that Syria's independence was achieved with Turkey's support, and with the war's conclusion and life resuming, Turkey is anticipated to contribute significantly to reconstruction projects.
Turkey's geographic proximity to Syria will provide a considerable advantage for the logistics sector. Trade routes passing through Aleppo to Damascus and Jordan are expected to flourish, leading to a substantial increase in Turkish exports. Additionally, Turkish ports such as Mersin and Iskenderun could serve as logistical hubs for the flow of trade into Syria, boosting Turkey's revenues from transit trade.
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