On Sunday, December 8, 2024, the regime of the Assad family, which ruled Syria with iron, fire, oppression, tyranny, and sectarianism for more than 54 years, collapsed. The Syrian opposition entered the capital, Damascus, the last stronghold of the regime, whose president, Bashar al-Assad, fled to Russia after his hands were stained with the blood of Syrians and their displacement.
In light of this unexpected transformation at such a critical moment in the history of the Islamic nation, and amidst the "Al-Aqsa Flood" battle, despite its pains, this significant event in Syria has written a lifeline and a cry for salvation for the future of this nation. The first fruits of this battle were this clear victory in Syria.
Future of the Syrian Economy
The change in Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has raised questions about the future of the Syrian economy, which has been exhausted by the tyranny of the ruler and the corruption of the authorities. The ability to bring it out of this dark tunnel into the realms of development and justice requires examining the current state of the Syrian economy and then considering how to overcome the crisis it has reached.
No one denies that Syria has economic potential, but it was misused due to the organized corruption management of the ousted regime. The peaceful revolution in 2011 faced the violence of the authorities, their thirst for blood, and the country's plunge into a barrel bomb war, exhausting its economy for the benefit of a few who represented the regime's custodians. This exacerbated economic and social problems, leading to the deterioration of the economy and making Syrian refugees the dominant situation.
World Bank Report
The World Bank's report in May last year reflects the state of the Syrian economy, predicting that the real GDP would shrink by 1.5% this year, adding to the 1.2% decline in 2023. Syria's GDP shrank by 54% between 2010 and 2021.
The report added that private consumption, the main driver of growth, would remain weak in 2024, with prices continuing to rise amid eroding purchasing power. Private investment is expected to remain weak amid a volatile security situation and significant economic and political uncertainty.
Need for Reform
Reform may take time, but it is essential to start with a clear strategic plan. As of 2022, poverty affected 69% of the population, equivalent to about 14.5 million Syrians. Extreme poverty, which was almost non-existent before the conflict, affected more than one in four Syrians in 2022 and may have worsened due to the impact of the February 2023 earthquake. Inflation is expected to rise to 99.7% in 2024 due to currency depreciation, reduced humanitarian aid, and increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant rise in prices and increased living difficulties for Syrians, making it hard for them to meet their basic needs.
The report mentioned that nighttime gas flaring data showed a 3.5% annual decline in oil production last year, partly due to infrastructure damage from earthquakes and conflict. While production was already declining before the conflict due to aging oil fields, the war sharply accelerated the decline.
Oil Production Decline
The US Energy Information Administration reported that Syria's oil production, which averaged more than 400,000 barrels per day between 2008 and 2010, fell to less than 25,000 barrels per day by May 2015, with an average production of about 91,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The World Bank report added that Syria's current economy is driven by "Captagon," as the country is a major producer and exporter of it. The total market value of Syrian-origin Captagon is estimated to be between $1.9 billion and $5.6 billion annually, roughly equivalent to Syria's GDP, estimated at $6.2 billion last year, according to the World Bank report.
The profits generated by actors based in or linked to Syria from selling Captagon amount to about $1.8 billion annually, nearly double the revenues from all legitimate Syrian exports in 2023.
New Phase for Syria
Today, Syria has entered a new phase based on human freedom. Syria's development begins with this freedom, which builds a righteous person and a just developmental economy. If the ousted regime wasted all of Syria's resources, including human, natural, material, and social capital, to the point where the infrastructure became dilapidated, the opportunities for economic reform are available to the new Syrian government. Reform may take time, but it is crucial to start with a clear strategic plan and a rapid crisis plan to address the current urgent needs.
Key to Economic Revival
The key to the economy starts with establishing material and moral security within the country and enhancing the productive concept. The economy is based on trust, and achieving this trust in the Syrian economy practically will inevitably lead to economic recovery, even if it takes time. Syria has strong human resources and capital, both domestically and abroad. This requires investing these resources and utilizing natural resources to create a real economy, moving away from reliance on rent and making the "compound" policy in real estate projects the basis at the expense of agricultural and industrial activities and improving educational and health services.
The key to the economy starts with establishing material and moral security within the country and reinforcing the productive concept of Islam through visible development. Security will only be achieved by eliminating decision-makers from the ousted regime and all corrupt individuals, quickly regulating the monetary system, and circulating the lira in a way that allows the central bank to control it until the production wheel starts turning and a balance is achieved between the monetary and production masses. Then, an Islamic monetary system can be established that suits the nature of the phase.
Financial System and Taxes
The financial system inevitably relies on taxes at this stage, ensuring that the tax brackets are low and progressive, increasing revenue while directing spending wisely towards infrastructure projects, primarily social infrastructure such as education and health. The role of endowments should be activated, and the field opened for businessmen to establish endowments directed towards these areas and other essential community needs.
Sustainable Development
The most crucial aspect related to sustainability and achieving the state's strength and renaissance through human interaction is making a structural change in the Syrian economy, utilizing its components by restructuring agricultural activities to achieve self-sufficiency in food and restructuring industrial activities to benefit from natural resources in manufacturing, meeting domestic needs, and exporting abroad. Here, the technology industry should be activated in everything.
Service Sector Priorities
In the service sector, it is essential to prioritize areas that achieve comparative advantages, especially by enhancing tourism activities given Syria's multiple civilizations' tourism potential.
Microfinance Activation
It is also important to quickly activate microfinance, as it has a magical ability to address unemployment, meet the community's needs for goods and services, and support the balance of payments. Facilitating financing and marketing for these types of financing institutions is crucial. Zakat, endowments, and banks can play a significant role in expanding this type of financing through various Islamic financing formulas.
Infrastructure Rehabilitation
The issue of dilapidated infrastructure can be addressed by issuing Islamic bonds. At this stage, Istisna bonds can be issued in the BOT system, where private sector projects establish infrastructure projects such as electricity, water, and transportation, benefiting from their utilities for a certain period. This will not cost the state a single lira, and the state can also obtain a portion of the revenues from these facilities alongside the private sector projects assigned to the task.
