The world has been curious for the last two days about the situation in Syria, particularly the rebels gaining control of Aleppo quickly. Despite the regime forces and Iranians there with enough resources to protect and resist rebels coming from Idlib and the north and west countryside of Aleppo.
Moreover, of course, due to the presence of three main defensive lines around Aleppo, these defenses were pushed back during the early hours of the attack last Friday night. This rapid collapse and the strong and sudden advance of the Syrian revolutionary forces can be attributed to answering a set of questions:
The first: What is the main factor for this significant field shift that led to the liberation of Aleppo?
The secret lies in the "change in the Russian strategy towards the Syrian regime", as the Syrian regime has become a burden on Russian strategy and policy in the region, especially after Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian war. This made the Syrian file less of a priority in Russian calculations.
Therefore, the Russians responded to Turkish proposals calling for the redefinition of Turkish-Syrian relations based on understandings that deepen keeping the regime under control and Russian influence with Turkish cover. President Erdogan set four conditions for the return of strategic relations with the Syrian regime, which include:
1- Assad's involvement in the political process with the opposition and revolutionary forces.
2- Assisting the return of Syrian refugees, as there are around 4 million refugees in Turkey, some of whom are from Aleppo.
3- Helping the Turkish army confront the Kurdish SDF.
4- Maintaining a neutral position towards the Iranians.
However, Bashar al-Assad rejected these conditions, and pressure from the Iranians not to agree, as the Russians would benefit from Turkish cover, as Turkey is part of the "NATO" alliance, whose members do not welcome Iranians in Syria.
Therefore, the shift towards creating a field change without Russian cover facilitated the task of the Syrian revolutionary movement without facing resistance from the air, which changes the equation with the regime.
The second: Why did Aleppo fall so quickly and the rebels crossed the three defensive lines in two nights?
The reasons can be summarized as follows:
- Operational unity in a joint operations room between the military forces of the Syrian revolutionary forces, mainly led by the largest force "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham". Who are these forces?
- "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham": based in Idlib, led by Abu Mohammad al-Julani, with Mohammed al-Bashar leading the Idlib government. They are former members of Al-Nusra Front who changed their name and ideology to become moderate and accept political and pragmatic agreements, and have a flourishing government in Idlib.
- "Free Syrian Army": a moderate Salafi faction rooted in the old Brotherhood fathers (Mohammed Surur, Mohammed al-Abdah, Issam al-Attar..), mostly young people born in Gulf countries and moved back to their homeland during the revolution.
- "Sham Legion": They are nationalist and Muslim Brotherhood members with a strong relationship with the Turkish government, located in Sarqib and Maarat al-Numan.
- "Nour al-Din al-Zenki Group": They are students of the Aleppo sharia school.
These four groups formed a unified operations room.
- "Turkmen Front": Syrians of Turkmen origin present in the northern countryside of Aleppo in the (Tel Rifaat province).
The plan was to surround Aleppo from three fronts; the west (HTS), the north (Turkmen Front), the east (Deir ez-Zor natives), from the direction of al-Bab city and southern Tadef (left for the regime army to escape towards the Khanaser region).
However, due to the rapid collapse of defense lines from the western front, where army leaders and intelligence officers fled, leaving behind their tanks and weapons which were seized by the rebels, this led to a swift entry into the city of Aleppo.
2- Weakened Iranian forces and Hezbollah, as they were depleted by American and Israeli strikes over the past four months, reducing their impact and influence in Aleppo and Idlib surroundings.
3- The moral weakening of the regime army due to the psychological effects of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the weak livelihood supplies, which weakened the army's vitality and capabilities due to hunger and poor logistical support.
4- The Americans have not intervened because it is not within their sphere of influence, and they are waiting for someone to defeat the Iranians and remove Hezbollah from these areas. The revolution's control over the Aleppo-Damascus highway, and their previous control over Route 4, also blocks the Iranians from supplying Hezbollah or army factions from the direction of Damascus in these areas.
What are the steps that followed?
We believe that the steps that will follow the liberation of Aleppo involve the possibility and capabilities of the Syrian rebels in managing the city of Aleppo as a priority in light of the possibility of a counterattack supported by Iran.
The scenario of facing the elements of the Kurdish YPG Syrian Democratic Front is highly likely.
Because it is a Turkish demand, and the Kurds occupied Aleppo airport in coordination with the regime, the rebels are working to clear the airport, which may ignite a definite confrontation between the Syrian rebels and the Kurds, distracting them from their main battle for stability in Aleppo.
The Americans may intervene to support the Kurds if the Turks openly and clearly support the Syrian rebels.
The rebels may turn to Hama, which is the closest, and this is actually happening, while we do not think they will head to Homs due to the significant presence of Hezbollah and Iranians.
A military coup supported by Russia is expected in Damascus, leading to political agreements, especially as the Alawite sect is greatly concerned about future developments.
The fighting lines may freeze to become new division lines?
The upcoming days will be full of events and changes.
