The Battle of “Al-Aqsa Flood” that broke out on October 7, 2023, is a milestone in the history of the Palestinian-Zionist conflict. This battle, whose repercussions are still ongoing, was able to be the longest and most complex military confrontation between the Palestinian resistance and the Zionist entity.
What distinguishes this battle from its predecessors is the complexity of the local, regional and international geopolitical scene that preceded and accompanied it. While this confrontation continues, it becomes clear that the Palestinian resistance entered this battle with full awareness of its potential repercussions and based on calculations that include gains and losses. However, the resistance also placed a number of bets that it seems failed to correctly estimate the extent of their impact, which we will discuss here in detail.
Political and Military Context
At the time when the Battle of “Al-Aqsa Flood” broke out, the Palestinian arena was experiencing an unprecedented state of tension due to the policies of the most extremist Zionist government, led by the religious Zionist movement. Since this government took power, Jerusalem, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque, has witnessed an escalation in Judaization attempts, as the pace of Zionist violations of Islamic sanctities has increased in a public and provocative manner.
In addition, the stifling siege of the Gaza Strip continued for years, which included disrupting fuel supplies and relief grants, in addition to what is known as the “battle between wars,” an “Israeli” strategy that aimed to gradually deplete the capabilities of the resistance through repeated rounds of escalation, which led to the deaths of hundreds of Palestinian civilians and wounded. All of this occurred in light of regional and international transformations that had a direct impact on the course of the conflict.
When the "Al-Aqsa Flood" erupted, the Palestinian arena experienced unprecedented tension due to the most extremist Zionist government.
At the regional level, the United States of America was rearranging its alliances in the Middle East within the framework of Arab normalization with "Israel", clearly ignoring the rights of the Palestinians. The statements of US President Joe Biden were striking in this context, as he confirmed to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, during their meeting in Bethlehem, that a political solution to the Palestinian issue seems distant, as long as international and regional circumstances are not in the Palestinians' favor.
These data combined, in addition to the United States' focus on confronting Russia in Ukraine and containing China, made it difficult to find a just solution to the Palestinian issue in the near term, and gave the far-right Zionist movement a free hand to further encroach against the Palestinian people in the West Bank and Jerusalem, in addition to escalating the pressure on prisoners in the occupation's prisons with the withdrawal of all their human rights by the extremist Itamar Ben Gvir.
Strategic gains for the resistance
Despite the intense bombing and massive destruction that Gaza was subjected to, which the resistance sees as a necessary price to end this conflict and put an end to the state of continuous depletion of the Palestinian people for 75 years, the Palestinian resistance achieved several strategic gains that must be looked at deeply:
1- Repositioning the Palestinian cause internationally:
After years of marginalization due to the “Oslo” Accords and the “Deal of the Century,” the “Al-Aqsa Flood” battle brought the Palestinian cause back to the forefront of the international scene. Palestine has once again become the center of political discussions in various capitals, especially in light of the rise of popular movements supporting the Palestinians in the West. The battle has also reinforced the conviction among international powers that it is impossible to turn Palestine and its cause into another Andalusia, and that global stability passes through the gateway of ending the Arab Israeli conflict and granting the Palestinian people their legitimate rights. 2- Proving the fragility of "Israeli" security:
The resistance has proven that "Israel", despite its military and technological superiority, is still vulnerable to attacks that could paralyze its security and military system. The attack over the past year was evidence that this system relies heavily on Western support, especially from the United States and Western countries.
The morning of October 7 was a strategic breaking point in the backbone of the Zionist entity, which is the security and military establishment. This breaking point, although it later tried to prove its ability to restore deterrence through genocide and the bleeding bloodbath in Gaza with American missiles, has not yet been able to hide the state of continuous bleeding within it in terms of the number of dead, wounded, and psychological trauma injuries, and most importantly, the resignations among the military and security leadership and the declaration of a state of disobedience and rebellion by members of the religious establishment who refuse to be recruited.
3- Strengthening the Palestinian national identity:
The battle contributed significantly to strengthening the Palestinian national identity, as it reaffirmed the unity of the Palestinian ranks despite internal and external challenges. The battle proved that the Palestinian, wherever he is, is under "Israeli" targeting. At a time when "Israel" is waging a war of extermination on Gaza, it continues its encroachment and aggression in the West Bank, where hundreds of its sons have been martyred and thousands of them arrested, as part of the policy of collective punishment against the Palestinians.
4- The resistance's ability to withstand and renew itself:
The Palestinian resistance's ability to withstand for a whole year in the face of an unprecedented Zionist killing machine supported by hundreds of planes and ships carrying all kinds of weapons to destroy Gaza and kill its people was remarkable. The resistance has proven that it has the ability to optimally invest in the capabilities available to it and re-employ them in a long-term battle with the Zionist occupation in Gaza. In addition, the resistance's ability to renew itself despite the large human losses it suffered during the battle. The resistance's tunnel system has also revealed the most influential aspect in managing the battle so far.
5- Breaking the "Israeli" propaganda hegemony:
For the first time in decades, the world has witnessed shifts in Western public opinion, as many societies, including American and European universities, have begun to adopt the Palestinian narrative after decades of "Israeli" propaganda hegemony. These shifts indicate the possibility of strengthening international support for the Palestinians in the future.
6- Forming a nucleus of regional support:
Despite the challenges, the resistance has succeeded in strengthening cooperation with regional allies, such as Iran and "Hezbollah." Although direct military support was limited compared to expectations, this is the first time that the resistance has found a case of external support during its battles with the occupation.
Resistance losses
Despite the clear gains, the heavy losses incurred by the Palestinian resistance cannot be ignored:
1- Depletion of military capabilities:
The resistance's infrastructure was severely damaged, especially with regard to the tunnel and missile network, which are capabilities that required years of construction and development. These losses pose challenges to the resistance in rebuilding and rehabilitating these capabilities, whether during or after the war. To what extent will it be able to do so in light of the expected results of the war?
The losses of the resistance include the depletion of military capabilities, the loss of field leaders, and the widespread destruction of infrastructure
2- Loss of some field leaders:
The battle witnessed the martyrdom of a large number of military leaders who played a prominent role in managing field battles. The loss of these leaders is a painful strategic loss, as replacing them requires a long time and training new cadres capable of managing battles.
3- Extensive destruction of infrastructure:
The Gaza Strip was subjected to widespread destruction that affected both civilian and military infrastructure. This destruction requires enormous efforts to rebuild in light of the ongoing "Israeli" siege; Which increases the burdens on the government and the resistance at the same time, and more importantly, is the resistance able to restore the psychological aspect of the popular incubator, and to what extent will it be able, in the aftermath of the war or during it, to consolidate the people’s steadfastness and strengthen their support for the resistance option?
The Resistance's Bets Before October 7
The Palestinian resistance entered the "Al-Aqsa Flood" battle based on several bets, some of which were achieved, and others did not bear fruit as hoped:
1- A bet on the unity of regional arenas: The resistance was betting on greater support from its regional allies, especially from the "Axis of Resistance", but this support remained limited at the direct military level, and did not rise to the level of responding to the massacres committed by the "Israeli" occupation in Gaza, and it seemed as if the resistance was alone not only in confronting "Israel", but also in confronting the international and regional system that declared its intention to eliminate it forever.
2- Friendships and relations before the battle: There were bets on political support from Arab and Islamic countries on a large scale, but these countries remained reserved in their positions and did not go beyond rhetorical responses and formal condemnation; which constituted a disappointment for the resistance and the Palestinian people, and more dangerous than that is that there are Arab countries that have directly or indirectly announced their bias towards the Zionist position at the expense of the Palestinian resistance.
3- Betting on international public opinion: The resistance's bet on the changes in international public opinion began to bear fruit, especially in Europe and America, where we witnessed waves of solidarity with the Palestinians and harsh criticism of "Israeli" policies. However, these changes still need more time and effort to translate into actual political pressure on Western governments.
4- The resistance's bet on the Arab and Islamic peoples: Despite the great popular sympathy, the popular movements remained ineffective in affecting the course of the battle. There was a bet that these movements would turn into pressure on the political regimes, but this did not happen in a tangible way, and the Arab action did not witness any pressure shifts. The operation of the martyr Muhammad Salah from Egypt and the martyr Maher Al-Jazzy from Jordan remained separate, individual operations within this general scene.
On the first anniversary of the "Al-Aqsa Flood" battle, the image of the Palestinian resistance becomes clear as a pivotal component in the extended conflict with the Zionist occupation, and despite the great losses it has incurred, it has proven its ability to withstand and bring about strategic shifts in the balance of power.
At the same time, the stakes remain open, especially with regard to strengthening the role of the axis of resistance at this critical stage and Gaza’s ability to recover after the war. The pivotal question now is: How will the resistance be able to build on these gains and benefit from the shifts in international and regional public opinion to achieve its future goals in light of the current complications?
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