Sudan is distinguished by its geographic location in the Horn of Africa, acting as the gateway to the African continent from the east, with a coastline on the Red Sea extending about 498 km. It borders seven countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Eritrea, the Central African Republic, Chad, and Libya. Sudan has long land borders without natural obstacles with its neighbors, totaling 6780 km. With this strategic location, Sudan lies at the heart of the ancient world continents of Asia, Africa, and Europe.
Sudan has been an early participant in international and regional institutions since its independence on January 1, 1965. Its history spans deeply through the eras of African, Arab, and Islamic civilizations. With this unique history and geography, Sudan has remained influential, affected, and a bridge through which influences pass in its regional, national, and international environment.
The war that broke out in Sudan on April 15, 2023, began to cast its shadows and impacts on Sudan's various surroundings from the first day. With the participation of countries and international and regional institutions, both directly and indirectly, each pursuing their own goals and interests, this war has far-reaching effects. This article addresses one of those impacts, focusing on Sudan's regional environment in Africa, with particular emphasis on Sudan's neighboring countries as follows:
- Egypt:
The primary justification given by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia for initiating war against the Sudanese state was the presence of Egyptian forces on Sudanese soil. Two days before the battles began in Khartoum, the militia attacked the Merowe base and captured Egyptian officers and soldiers. Although the militia later released them and apologized to Egypt, this incident reinforced Egypt's principled stance against the presence of militias in the region and its support for the Sudanese state and army against the rebel militia.
Since the war began, Egypt has received around 450,000 Sudanese refugees fleeing the conflict, in addition to the 4 million Sudanese already residing in Egypt, according to reports by the International Organization for Migration.
Besides the negative economic impacts on Egypt due to the cessation of most trade activities between the two countries, the Sudanese war poses a serious threat to Egypt's national security if the conflict approaches its borders. Additionally, the issue of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), shared between Egypt and Sudan, is exploited by Ethiopia to strengthen its position amid any instability in both countries.
- Ethiopia:
Sudanese-Ethiopian relations are characterized by frequent tensions. Nevertheless, Ethiopia has maintained good relations with the RSF militia. It is well known that Hemedti has substantial investments in Ethiopia, and Ethiopia trained RSF members in aviation before the war. Ethiopian mercenaries have also participated alongside the militia in fighting the Sudanese army. Furthermore, Ethiopia has influenced the African Union to adopt negative stances towards the Sudanese state and army. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the militia leader Hemedti officially while the militia was waging war against the Sudanese state.
Historically, Ethiopia has served as a haven for Sudanese rebel groups, a position that has backfired on Ethiopia itself, as it is natural for Sudan to reciprocate by hosting Ethiopian opposition groups. The truth remains that the strained relationship between the two countries leads to instability in both.
- Eritrea:
Sudan has been one of the biggest supporters of the Eritrean cause for liberation from Ethiopian occupation and hosts a significant number of Eritrean refugees. Eritrea heavily relies on imports from Sudan, especially food products. The war in Sudan has led to increased food prices in neighboring countries, including Eritrea.
The official Eritrean stance on the Sudanese war supports the Sudanese state and army. Eritrea's relations with the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia have not been favorable. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has expressed concern on multiple occasions about the RSF's involvement in the Yemen war and its leader's rapprochement with the Ethiopian regime.
- South Sudan:
South Sudan's position in the Sudanese war is complex. While President Salva Kiir Mayardit supports the Sudanese state and army, several key figures in his administration openly support the RSF militia due to their interests in its leader, Hemedti. Some South Sudanese officials have contracted mercenaries from South Sudan to fight alongside the militia against the Sudanese army, which has captured and displayed some of these mercenaries in the media.
South Sudan is one of the most affected by the Sudanese war. The rebel militia's attacks on oil facilities that refine South Sudan's petroleum have been a source of concern. Additionally, the return of South Sudanese refugees and the arrival of Sudanese refugees in South Sudan have placed pressure on the country. South Sudan also relies on imports from Sudan, which have become scarce and expensive due to the war.
- Central African Republic:
The Central African Republic is experiencing chaos due to internal conflict. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia has attempted to recruit mercenaries from the Central African Republic to fight alongside them, in collaboration with Russian Wagner mercenaries. The country is facing border disruptions, looting gangs, shortages of imports, and refugee pressures due to the Sudanese war. However, President Faustin-Archange Touadéra has publicly denied that his country supports the RSF militia.
- Chad:
Chad's stance on the Sudanese war has seen dramatic shifts. Initially, President Mahamat Déby (known as Kaka) declared his support for the Sudanese state and army, coordinating with Sudan to counter the RSF militia along their shared border. However, Chad's position reversed completely, with President Déby's regime becoming one of the biggest supporters of Hemedti's militia.
Observers attribute this dramatic shift in Chad's stance to international pressures and incentives. Currently, Chad is dealing with unrest and threats to its national and social security. Chad shares deep tribal connections with Sudan, which have been significantly impacted by the situations in both countries since the outbreak of the Darfur crisis.
- Libya:
Libya's internal division affects its stance on the war in Sudan. While the Tripoli government in the west declares its support for the Arab League's position on the Sudanese war, Sudanese sources, citing multiple pieces of evidence, accuse the Benghazi government in the east, controlled by General Khalifa Haftar, of supporting Hemedti’s RSF militia with weapons, mercenaries, and fuel. The relationship between Haftar and Hemedti is well-known, having recently seen significant development and cooperation before the rebellion.
From the above examples of the Sudanese war's impact on neighboring countries, the following points are evident:
- Threat to national security due to the spread of chaos and unrest.
- The refugee issue, including illegal migration.
- Negative economic effects of the war, such as halted trade, rising prices, and loss of resources.
- The phenomenon of transnational mercenaries, which poses a significant threat wherever it spreads.
- The violation of borders, facilitating the spread of extremism, terrorism, and transnational crimes like drug trafficking and others.
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