Sudan is not only the third-largest country in Africa but also spans a vital, geopolitically unstable region. Its strategic position and geographic, human, and cultural expanse stretch between latitudes 4 and 22 degrees north of the equator and longitudes 22 and 38 degrees, covering an area of 700,000 square miles. Its coastline along the Red Sea extends approximately 670 kilometers. Sudan shares borders with two Arab countries and five African nations, situating it deeply in North Africa, adjacent to Egypt and Libya, in the West African coastal desert bordering Chad and the Central African Republic, and the east alongside the Red Sea, bordering Eritrea and Ethiopia. The southern tropical border, recently formed, extends towards central and southern Africa with South Sudan, turning Kenya and Uganda from neighboring Sudanese countries into neighbors of South Sudan following its secession.
Political, Military, and Economic Impact of the War
These features and factors have positioned Sudan as the beating heart of Africa, wielding direct and indirect influence across the continent. African political memory attests to this influence since Sudan's independence from the United Kingdom in 1956 up to the present, marked by fierce conflict.
The ongoing situation in Sudan has military, political, and economic repercussions for Africa, echoing across some of the continent's most fragile regions. The fate of the Nile basin countries, both upstream and downstream, is directly tied to the central transit nation where the Blue and White Nile converge, much like Egypt's existential impact as a downstream nation suffering from water shortages. Similarly, landlocked upstream Ethiopia harbors ambitions to exploit the Nile's waters, already affecting the river's flow.
Sudan's Echoes: Military, Political, and Economic Reverberations Across Africa
Sudan shares borders with seven countries, all of which have been impacted by the Sudanese war. These countries, in turn, directly affect their distant neighbors from Sudan. The events in Sudan cross borders, casting shadows over all countries in West, Sahel, East, and Central Africa. This situation has led to a reshaping of regional alliances and the international influence dominating Africa, with the prominent presence of the Eastern axis led by Russia through the gateway of the Sudanese war. The strategic cooperation agreement in all its military, political, and economic aspects has caused all of Africa to boil like a cauldron due to the reaction of the Western axis led by the United States.
Russian efforts to penetrate eastern Sudan overlooking the Red Sea have not ceased; the Kremlin has been aiming for years to establish a military base in Port Sudan, where Russian warships could dock and control one of the world's most congested and significant maritime passages. Recently, Moscow found its opportunity in the current war, which the West and the United States had a significant role in igniting and fueling through their regional proxies and allies. This situation forced the Sudanese government and army leadership to turn eastward and seek alliances for support, reactivating the previously frozen Russian military base deal in Port Sudan due to American pressures.
Meanwhile, African and international financial institutions have expressed concerns about the disturbances spreading to neighboring countries or a deterioration in the broader region's security environment, as seen in the Sahel region in recent years.
Sudan's Neighbors Face Economic Threat as Development Funding Dwindles Amidst Complexities
In one of the latest reports issued by Moody's credit rating agency regarding Sudan, it indicates that the ongoing crisis threatens the ratings of banks operating in the country as follows:
– Multilateral development banks focusing their loans on Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt will be the first affected.
– The value of loans from the Development and Trade Bank in Sudan reached $931 million by the end of 2022.
– Securing $213 million of these loans will mitigate the potential negative impacts.
– About 34% of the African Trade and Development Bank's loans are in Sudan and neighboring countries only.
– The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) directed 31% of its funding to countries adjacent to Sudan.
Most Affected Countries
The onset of political unrest in Sudan was tied to decisions by international financial institutions to halt any aid or funding due to the increased risk of non-repayment. The political unrest in October 2021 led the World Bank to suspend about $500 million in aid that was allocated to support Sudan's budget as part of a $2 billion grant pledge.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also halted approximately $150 million in funding after approving a $2.5 billion loan program in June 2021. Additionally, Washington suspended nearly $700 million in aid.
With fears of the clashes spreading and extending to neighboring countries, development funding has come under threat, especially in African countries bordering Sudan.
According to a Moody's report, the conflict in Sudan could lead to a downgrade in the credit ratings of many banks operating in the country, as well as donor banks providing development funding, including the Trade and Development Bank and the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), in Sudan and neighboring countries.
Sudan's Neighboring Countries Have a Significant Economic Interest in Ending the War to Avoid Major Losses
Moody's adds that if the clashes escalate into a prolonged civil war in Sudan, financial risks will spill over to neighboring countries or weaken the security environment in the region. This will raise concerns for multilateral development banks, which focus their loans on Chad, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
Economic risks are increasing as the crisis continues to worsen, with no clear resolution to the military conflict. Neighboring countries are economically threatened by the reduction in development funding amid already complex situations preceding the conflict in Sudan. This will increase the need to rely on international funding, especially urgent aid related to food security.
The dependency of African countries on Sudan will negatively impact them now, especially landlocked ones like Ethiopia, which rely on Sudanese ports for international trade. The flow of their goods through Port Sudan has become highly threatened since the conflict began. This situation has prompted Ethiopia to seek alternatives, such as Somaliland, and to sign agreements that have heightened diplomatic and security tensions between the Federal Republic of Somalia and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.
Moreover, the conflict is weakening the ability of African countries, particularly those neighboring Sudan, to meet their external obligations and secure import needs, depleting their strategic reserves.
Therefore, neighboring countries, their neighbors, and even the African Union have a significant economic interest in ending the war in Sudan. Otherwise, they will face substantial losses, impacting the entire African continent's overall growth, even if they are not directly involved in the conflict.
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The Sources:
1- Local and international news agencies.
2- Moody's credit rating agency.
3- Investigative articles about the Sudanese war by the writer on his personal blog on Facebook.
Read this Article in Arabic.
