On February 4, 2024, Senegal, a country with a rooted democracy since its independence and a majority Muslim population of 96%, witnessed widespread popular protests in opposition to the autocratic tendencies of the pro-French President Macky Sall. The president decided to cancel the presidential elections, which were scheduled for February 25, 2024, without a specific reason. The opposition states that the cancellation is an attempt to prevent the victory of an opposition candidate who is not aligned with France, which dominates the country's political decisions.

The cancellation of the presidential elections is the first in Senegal's history since 1963, a year that witnessed the beginning of political pluralism, a peaceful transition of power, and respect for the constitution and election schedules.

What happened can be described as a constitutional coup against the electoral process by a faithful French ally, with the support of the “National Gendarmerie” forces. Speculations arose about the possibility of the country experiencing a military coup for the first time against the president, obstructing the elections, as the Senegalese constitution unequivocally prohibits the postponement or cancellation of presidential elections.

The pro-French President Sall canceled the elections that were due on February 25 with no specific reason

President Macky Sall, whose term ends in April 2024 and is not eligible for a third term reelection, sought to bypass the constitution by legalizing the election cancellation process. He issued a presidential decree, framing the cancellation as a postponement. Subsequently, a vote on the postponement was conducted in a way that allowed him to remain in power throughout the extension period, exceeding his presidential term!

On February 6, parliamentarians opposing the vote were forcibly removed from parliament by the military and the National Gendarmerie for the first time, and the majority aligned with Sall and France, voting in favor of the election postponement to protect their interests in Senegal. President Sall thus obtained forged parliamentary approval for the postponement until December 15, 2024, allowing him to stay in office until the rescheduled elections. This triggered widespread protests.

France’s Fault

Analysts believe that President Sall, the prominent ally of France in West Africa, sought to postpone the elections because he is ineligible for a third presidential term, especially with the emergence of a strong and popular opposition figure, Ousmane Sonko, who belongs to the “Pastef” party and is known for his anti-French stance. President Sall plotted against him and arrested him while supporting another presidential candidate named Ahmed Siko Bah, who lacked popularity and charisma simply because he was pro-France.

Now, Senegal has revolted against the president, leading to clashes between the police and protesters opposing the postponement of the election. The capital witnessed several fires due to the chaos.

The events are escalating dramatically, with observers fearing that the military might be forced to intervene, leading to a potential military coup. This would mark the country's first experience with coups, jeopardizing its renowned democracy due to the autocratic motives of a pro-French president. France is playing Sall to prevent the victory of an anti-French candidate in the upcoming elections.

Analysts argue that France is the cause of the chaos in Senegal, supporting the president's plans to prevent an opposition figure from coming to power who demands France's departure from Senegal, as demanded by leaders of Mali, Niger, and others by raising Russian flags and demanding France and America’s expulsion from their lands. This raises questions about whether Senegal will follow in the footsteps of other African nations by removing France from their territories.

 Analysts: Sall postponed the elections due to the emergence of a strong popular and anti-French competitor

Large protests erupt throughout the country, especially in front of the parliament that legalized the constitutional coup. The pro-French president has cut mobile internet and suppressed the people yearning for freedom.

The Third Term Curse!

The political crisis in Senegal stems from a feud between the current president and the opposition, which supported constitutional amendments approved in 2016. These amendments limited the presidential term to only two, depriving the current president of the possibility of running for a third term. The amended Senegalese constitution explicitly states, “No one can rule the country for more than two consecutive terms.”

However, the constitutional amendments following President Sall's first term, which began in 2012, sparked disputes. In 2021, President Sall announced his intention to run for a third term, arguing that this provision did not apply to him as his first term was before the constitutional reforms.

Opposition political forces, led by Ousmane Sonko, the leader of the “Pastef” party, considered the president's decision to run for a third term as an “interpretation of the constitution in his favor.” They called on their supporters to take to the streets to oppose Sall's aspirations for continuing in power.

The country witnessed violent protests in 2021, including in Dakar, Thies, and major cities in Senegal, resulting in a number of fatalities and injuries. The Sufi Brotherhoods and Muslim scholar groups intervened to end the protests, leading President Sall to announce his decision to forsake his aspirations for a third term.

 France is behind the election postponement to prevent Senegal from falling into the hands of its opponents after losing three African countries

However, the political crisis resurfaced this year (2024) when the Constitutional Council in Senegal issued the final list of 20 presidential candidates, excluding Karim Wade, the leader of the Senegalese Democratic Party and the son of former President Abdoulaye Wade. President Macky Sall had considered him a potential successor. However, Wade's candidacy was rejected due to his dual citizenship, holding both Senegalese and French nationalities. Thus, members of the ruling Senegalese Democratic Party called for a parliamentary committee to investigate two members of the Constitutional Council, accusing them of taking bribes to exclude Wade. This was under the pretext that the council accepted another candidate with dual citizenship while rejecting the ruling party's candidate.

As tensions escalated among the parliament, the Constitutional Council, the president, and the opposition, President Sall intervened to cancel the elections until arrangements could be made to select a clear candidate without any disputes. This candidate would be his successor and the ruling party's nominee in the elections.

According to African affairs researcher Mohamed Amin Sawadogo, there are three reasons behind Sall's extension of the presidential term and the postponement of the elections:

• First: the Senegalese gas deal and its commissions, which were expected to be delivered within 4 to 9 months, and the pressure from military and security leaders to secure their share. Therefore, President Sall manipulated the situation by postponing the elections for 10 months to remain in power and secure the commissions, appeasing the generals to prevent them from overthrowing him.
• Second: the weakness of Ahmed Bah, Sall's preferred candidate, and his realization that he would lose against his historical formidable opponents who are lurking around to imprison him the same as he did to them. Thus, Sall's inner circle saw the need to delay the elections until a strong government-backed candidate could be prepared.
• Third: France demanded this postponement to prevent Senegal from falling into the hands of anti-French forces rapidly, especially after losing its influence in three countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger).

The outcome may be determined by the ongoing protests in the streets, whether they evolve into a revolution against the president leading to his removal and trial, or if the president, with the support of the military and police, succeeds in suppressing and imprisoning his opponents.

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