In precisely half a year, Americans will participate in the upcoming elections on November 5th to elect either Joe Biden from the Democratic Party or Donald Trump from the Republican Party as their president.
The most senior presidential contenders ever in the U.S. are competing while Trump faces legal issues, the country deals with its worst inflation in four decades, Washington is tested by the Ukraine conflict, and university turmoil over the Gaza war reaches unprecedented levels. The country of Vietnam.
In an article for The Sunday Times, Gerald Sieb, who is a visiting fellow at the Robert J. Dole Institute of Politics at the University of Kansas in the United States, suggested that the unpredictable nature of the electoral process could be attributed to the "toxic" conditions. He posed 6 questions that he believes will have a significant impact on the election results. Regarding the outcome.
1- Who will benefit from the economic situation?
In US presidential elections, the economic factor typically takes precedence over all other factors, particularly for the current officeholder. According to typical standards, the US economy is performing positively.
Even though economic growth has slowed down, it remains strong with stock markets growing by over 10% in the past year, aligning with Biden's goals. According to Seb, the situation doesn't appear like that.
The article's author believes this is due to high inflation in the last three years, which may have now stabilized, stating that the primary goal of the Biden campaign is to persuade voters of the strong state of the economy.
2- Is there a high likelihood of minorities and young people engaging in voting significantly?
The author stated that Democrats have traditionally depended on the strong backing of minority voters and young people in recent years, however, this is now uncertain.
He stated that Trump's Republican Party saw improvements in support from black and Latino working-class voters, particularly among men, as shown in polls.
This poses a concern for Democrats as there are signs that young voters lack enthusiasm for getting involved in this year's elections. If things keep going this way, Biden could receive a deadly blow.
However, voters have a tendency to rebound closer to the election, meaning Republican satisfaction with these signs may not last long.
3- What consequences will Trump face for his legal issues?
No major party candidate has ever faced criminal charges in court before.
Seib points out that Trump is currently dealing with a unique situation, as he is now confronted with a total of 91 criminal accusations across 4 distinct indictments. These charges range from manipulating business records to conceal illegal payments to a pornographic actress, to the more severe accusation of attempting to invalidate his defeat in the 2020 elections.
Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that these allegations will be legally resolved prior to the upcoming elections.
According to the poll results, it seems that certain Trump supporters who are considered on the outskirts may be unwilling to vote for a criminal.
4- Which candidate will demonstrate the impacts of getting older?
According to the writer, it is an undeniable fact that both candidates are elderly. Both of them are quite aged and exhibit signs of getting older. During his trial, Trump would occasionally doze off while hearing the arguments and questioning, and at election rallies he would sometimes mumble incoherently.
When it comes to Biden, he appears to have trouble speaking without stuttering and frequently becomes distracted, causing him to forget the ideas he is trying to convey.
Yet, the critical determinant will be if any of the contenders experience a health decline before the election. However, Biden might be able to persuade voters that his older age equates to increased wisdom.
It is uncertain if his participation in the election will attract votes away from Biden or Trump.
5- Can the unaffiliated candidate serve as the deciding factor?
Robert Kennedy, a possible independent candidate and member of the renowned Democratic Kennedy family, could prove to be an unexpected advantage.
It is uncertain if his participation in the election will take votes away from either Biden or Trump.
6-Which states are crucial in determining the outcome of the race?
According to Gerald Sieb's article, the outcome of this year's elections will be determined by just 7 states; Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
The first four states on this list are expected to play a key role in the upcoming elections and in determining the occupant of the White House.
