Was Iran forced to respond after approximately 150 to 200 painful strikes directed by Israel against it and its allies? Did her response pay off, or did it backfire? What is the cost to both Iran and Israel as a result of this strike? What are the benefits that Iran gained from its questionable impact on Israel? These are some of the questions raised by Iran's strike, the impact of which did not exceed the effect of some limited missile attacks directed by the Palestinian resistance factions from Gaza.
The Size of the Military Operation
On the evening of April 13, 2024, Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Israel, targeting sites in the Golan Heights, the Arad region, and two air bases in the Negev Desert. CNN and Reuters reported that Iran had launched more than 300 drones and missiles toward Israel. An Israeli military spokesman said that Iran launched 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. Israeli army spokesman Daniel Hajari said that about 350 missiles had been launched at Israel from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
According to Iranian Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri, the main targets included the Nevatim air base from which Israel launched the attack on the Iranian consulate, as well as the intelligence center in the Israeli-occupied part of Mount Hermon which provided intelligence for the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The targets, according to Bagheri, included Ramon Air Base in southern Palestine, Tel Aviv, and Dimona. According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Tasnim news agency, the tactic used is to saturate Iron Dome and David's Sling with a first wave of hundreds of drones, to pave the way for dozens of ballistic missiles in the second wave.
The Only Victim
The New York Times reported that a young Palestinian Bedouin girl was seriously injured by a missile fragment, while Israel did not suffer any damage. The child, Amina Al-Hassouni (7 years old), is in serious condition in the intensive care room at Soroka Hospital in the Negev, southern Palestine. She was hit by shrapnel from a missile as part of the Iranian attack on Saturday evening.
Israel and Allies Counter the Attack
Israel says it and its allies intercepted almost the entire air attack, and that the strikes caused only minor damage to one Israeli military base. Hebrew media, citing sources in the Israeli Ministry of Defense, reported that American and British forces intercepted more than 100 Iranian drones outside Israel.
The White House reiterated that American support for Israel remains "firm."
Israel's Losses
Yedioth Ahronoth quoted Brigadier General Ram Aminah, the former financial advisor to the Israeli Chief of Staff, as saying: “The defense cost was estimated between 4-5 billion shekels” ($1.08-1.35 billion).
“Aminah” added: “One “Haetz” (Arrow) missile used to intercept an Iranian ballistic missile, costs $3.5 million, while the cost of one “Magic Wand” missile is $1 million, in addition to the sorties of the aircraft that participated in intercepting Iranian drones.”
Live Ammunition Training
These are trivial costs when compared to what Israel has cost since the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Flood, which drained the treasury and slowed down or stopped many industrial, agricultural, tourism and service sectors. What happened was nothing more than a kind of intensive training with live ammunition.
Neither Achieved Deterrence nor Saved Face
Was Iran able to deter “Israel” by using more than 300 drones and missiles to attack different aims? Some believe that Iran had no choice but to respond in order to save face. In fact, it neither achieved deterrence or saved its face.
Both the response's cost and effectiveness contradict this. The human casualties are zero, and the economic casualties are negligible! The public, eager for a severe response to "Israel," said, "We wish Iran hadn't done it!" We wish they had reserved the "right to reply"!
Nevertheless, what advantages did it provide to Israel and its allies?
What has the Iranian Strike Achieved for Israel and Allies?
Israel deliberately incited war with Iran for the following reasons:
- Its aggressive war on Gaza is facing a miserable failure despite the ethnic cleansing of Palestinian civilians and the destruction of infrastructure.
- This led to global public opinion turning decisively against Israel
- The Biden administration is under unprecedented pressure due to its participation in the genocidal war on Gaza
- Netanyahu is threatened with imprisonment when the war ends
Iran wanted to flex its muscles against "Israel", but instead it enabled Israel to display its strength and efficiency in encountering the strike, to the point that Iran's attack seemed merely an empty theatrical show. In fact, it fell into the trap and swallowed the bait, as Israel was in dire need of such a large-scale, low-value attack.
These are some of Israel’s benefits:
- The attack will be invested to restore the “Israeli” public’s confidence in its military institution, a confidence that had collapsed or nearly collapsed thanks to the Al-Aqsa flood epic.
- The strike is a good opportunity for “Israel” to re-mobilize Western sympathy, which had shifted strongly to the side of the Palestinian right after the world saw genocide and ethnic cleansing broadcast to it live in Gaza.
- The attack has provided a lifeline for American politicians loyal to “Israel” who were punished by American domestic anger in sympathy with Gaza.
- - This is another opportunity to renew the sense of fear among the Israeli public that could help Netanyahu play the role of savior.
What has been achieved for the resistance?
There is no doubt that the Palestinian resistance, which is writing an absolutely unprecedented history of struggle, as it confronts the most powerful powers in the world, Israel, the United States, and most of the colonial powers of the West, was in dire need of real support to relieve it of some of this enormous pressure and stifling siege. Especially since it is surrounded by subordinate and subjugated peoples and governments, which do not even have the power to demonstrate in protest against the massacres, but this is what resulted in the tragic impact of the nation! Much ado!
Strategic Flaw
- Did Iran have any other alternatives?
Why did Iran not attack an Israeli consulate as it struck its consulate in Damascus? An easy question to answer! Because Iran has good relations with all neighboring countries that have Israeli consulates, unlike Israel that is surrounded by countries with which it is hostile and does not have relations with it, such as Syria and Iraq.
- Why were the attacks not launched from Syria or Iraq, Iran's friends?
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has nearby bases in Syria in particular, through which it can surprise “Israel” with painful attacks, but there are considerations that prevent it from doing so, the most important of which is its fear for those same bases, in addition to its fear of revenge from its friends and allies. So Iran had no choice but to launch the attack from its territory.
- Was the strike a strategic mistake?
If Iran wanted its attack to be a deterrent response, the attack undeniably failed. If they wanted it to be a show of force, it would have been sufficient to stage a military parade on its lands or on the lands of its allies. As for swallowing Netanyahu’s bait and offering him what he wanted, through this droopy response, this is adolescence and a failed gamble. If it had issued a fiery statement reserving its right to respond in addition to a complaint to the Security Council, it would have been better for it.
