Successes against Israel
Two American researchers recently analyzed the attack by Hamas on Israel and called it an "astonishing tactical success." Despite the Israeli army's increasing control over Gaza and the devastating impact on the region, Hamas managed to achieve certain goals.
The attack caused pain and destroyed Israel's sense of security, which were both objectives of Hamas. It exposed the Israeli government's belief that Hamas lacked the intention and capabilities for a large-scale attack. This assumption left Israel unprepared, resulting in an intelligence failure that had a more significant impact than expected.
Furthermore, Israel's response to the attack could strengthen Hamas's position. The movement successfully brought the Palestinian issue back into international news, and the ongoing Israeli military campaign in Gaza keeps the Palestinian cause in the headlines. The ground attack also aligns with Hamas's narrative of Israeli aggression, isolating Israel from its neighbors and increasing regional tensions. In the long term, this conflict may strengthen support for Hamas among a new generation of Gazans who harbor grievances against Israel.
Successes within Palestinian society
Hamas's effective attacks restored its credentials among the Palestinian people and increased support for the resistance movement. Limited opinion polls and anecdotal reports indicate strong support for the October 7 attack among Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. The Israeli response in both regions has angered many Palestinians who do not necessarily support Hamas.
Additionally, the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli POW arrested by Hamas on the day of the attack is a clear victory for the movement. Hamas can argue that its attacks, rather than the negotiations of the rival Palestinian Authority, led to the prisoners' release.
International successes
The researchers believe that the Palestinian issue has regained global attention. Israel's response to the Hamas attack reinforces narratives that portray it as an occupying power brutally oppressing Palestinians. The ongoing conflict and the resulting humanitarian crisis in Gaza undermine Israel's image in the region and garner support from those who oppose it, such as Iran. The attack also temporarily halted US-backed normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Furthermore, the war demonstrated notable support for the Palestinian cause, with pro-Palestinian demonstrations spreading across Europe. The global South, with few exceptions, has adopted the Palestinian narrative, viewing the conflict as a powerful state attacking a defenseless people. Many express regret at what they perceive as the West's hypocrisy in defending Ukraine while ignoring the rights of Palestinians.
Even in the United States, Hamas could claim some victories. While most Republicans and President Joe Biden supported Israel, the Democratic Party is divided, with younger Democrats particularly critical of Israel.
Source: Foreign Policy
