Vital for Ethiopia
Abiy Ahmed, the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, recently made some statements that have raised concerns about a potential war between Ethiopia and its neighboring countries in the Horn of Africa. In a speech to parliament, Ahmed emphasized the importance of the Red Sea to Ethiopia and questioned why Ethiopians don't openly discuss this crucial issue. He argued that just as the Nile River is vital to Egypt and Sudan, the Red Sea holds significant economic and strategic value for Ethiopia.
Ethiopia's Need for a Port
Ahmed highlighted Ethiopia's historical and geographical rights to access a port, stating that it is a legitimate need for the country. He described Ethiopia as an "island surrounded by water" but emphasized that it is a landlocked nation, making it crucial for Ethiopia to secure adequate access to the sea. With a rapidly growing population, Ahmed argued that obtaining a sea port on the Red Sea is no longer a luxury but an existential issue for Ethiopia.
Concerns and Questions
Ahmed's statements have sparked concerns and questions, particularly among Ethiopia's neighboring countries with ports on the Red Sea, such as Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia. The leaked speech where Ahmed mentioned securing access to a port, even by force if necessary, further intensified these concerns.
Timing and Context
It is important to consider the timing and context of Ahmed's statements. He seems to have chosen this moment strategically, as the region is experiencing significant geo-strategic changes that create favorable international conditions to raise the issue of Ethiopia's port access. This pattern of exploiting major events to make policy decisions, sometimes resembling declarations of war, is not uncommon in the Horn of Africa.
Historical Revisionism
Ahmed has also engaged in what historians call "historical review," where he reconsiders previous historical facts or phenomena based on new evidence or sources. However, his statements lack sufficient evidence or legal references to justify reconsidering the existing national states' laws in the region for the sake of obtaining a sea port. Criticism has been raised against Ahmed for using population growth and development needs as reasons to make such claims.
It is worth noting that Ahmed previously criticized the federal rule established by the Tigray Liberation Front in the 1990s after assuming office. This criticism targeted members of the Tigray Front in various state departments, leading to their exclusion from senior positions or facing corruption charges. This stance aligns closely with the Amhara elites, who support the abolishment of the federal system and a return to the previous central system.
President Isaias Afwerki of Eritrea also shares a negative view of Ethiopia's ethnic federalism system. He believes that this system was a conspiracy aimed at dividing people and ruling them, and it was the root cause of the border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The Ethiopian-Eritrean Alliance: A New Chapter in Regional Politics
A New Alliance Emerges
Something interesting is happening in the world of politics. Three parties - the Ethiopian government led by Abiy Ahmed, the Eritrean government led by Isaias Afwerki, and the Amhara elites through the "Fano" militia - have come together to form a new alliance. This alliance is changing the dynamics of the region.
The Tigray Conflict
In November 2020, the Ethiopian government declared war on the Tigray region. They claimed it was to restore the rule of law. Surprisingly, the same three parties involved in the alliance were part of this military operation. The Ethiopian National Defense Forces, the Eritrean army, and the special forces of the Amhara region and its militia all played a role.
Tension in Abiy Ahmed's Relations
Abiy Ahmed, the Ethiopian Prime Minister, seems to be having some issues with the parties he allied with during the Tigray war. In the past, he worked to exclude the Tigray Liberation Front by signing a peace agreement with Eritrea in 2018. Then, in November 2022, he signed the "Pretoria Peace Agreement" with the Tigray Liberation Front without involving the Amhara or the Eritrean government. This made the Amhara feel used in the war without gaining anything from it.
Unrest in the Amhara Region
Things took a turn for the worse when the Ethiopian government decided to dissolve all regional militias, including the Fano militia, in April 2023. They wanted to establish a single central force at the federal level. This decision caused widespread unrest and a deteriorating security situation in the Amhara region. The Amharic Fano militia even took control of several cities and regions, leading to a state of emergency being declared.
Another War on the Horizon?
Interestingly, the Eritrean regime, which was once an ally of Abiy Ahmed in the Tigray war, took a similar position on the Pretoria Peace Agreement. There are reports that the Amharic Fano militia received support and training from Eritrea. The Eritrean Ministry of Information's comment on Abiy Ahmed's statements also hints at a silent crisis between the two governments.
Given all these developments, one can't help but wonder if another war is on the horizon in the region. Abiy Ahmed's statements seem to be the result of a new alliance that formed after the Pretoria Peace Agreement. The Amhara region has experienced unrest since the agreement, and these statements might be a way for Abiy Ahmed to gain political support.
Furthermore, these statements indicate a possible disintegration of the political alliance between Isaias Afwerki and Abiy Ahmed. Their relationship might return to its tense state before the peace agreement, leading to proxy wars or even a new war between the two countries.
