The equation of the Turkish election runoff

The second round of Turkish presidential elections differs from the first due to differences in the equations that govern it, which include:
1- The ability of each party to hold together its alliances and supporters. While Erdogan and the Justice and Development Alliance proved a greater ability in cohesion by bringing it to a greater percentage than the opposition candidate, which almost brought him to the brink of success, as well as the success of this alliance in obtaining the parliamentary majority, which gives confidence and enthusiasm to work to win the second round. This is unlike the opposition coalition, which was damaged in its broad opposition by having more than one candidate for the presidency (Kilijdaroglu, Sinan, and Muharram İnce), or the six-party table alliance, which failed to obtain the presidency or the majority in Parliament. This can discourage his audience and reduce his enthusiasm for the second round.
2- The Kurdish component, the largest proportion of which came out primarily for the success of the Kurdish list, more than Kilicdaroglu's choice.
However, in the second round, part of this component will fail to go to the elections, because it considers both candidates to be nationalists in its view of the Kurdish problem.
3- The youth bases of the (Muharrem İnce) party and the ancestors’ alliance (Sinan) will not be committed to voting for Kilicdaroglu because they did not adhere to that before and believe that he is not fit for the presidency, and this makes part of the opposition base either not go to vote, or they may vote for President Erdogan.
4- One of the factors is also the ability of the two parties to reach understandings with Muharram İnce and Sinan, to support one of them in the second round, according to interests and issues. The Justice and Development Party and President Erdogan will be more able to implement these understandings due to the presence of the president in the government and the presence of a majority of the Justice and Development Party under the dome of Parliament.

This is an advantage that helps President Erdogan win, God willing.
5- There is an electoral base that constitutes approximately 8 million voters who did not participate in the first round, and this is affected by the most fortunate and realistic in success, and it has noticed the success of the Justice Party in its regions, which encourages it to elect the most experienced, President Erdogan, and the strongest in chances of success, given that it achieved nearly 50 %.
6- Stability factor. This is what the Turkish people need, as having a president who agrees with a parliamentary majority is better than having a president who quarrels with a majority that prevents the passage of budgets and laws, and where the majority is achieved for the Justice Alliance, it is better to choose Erdogan to bring about this stability.
7- Decreased frequency of external interventions. It was exhausted in the first round and did not achieve the necessary achievement of its support for the opposition, and some of them will begin to ease the media campaign for the sake of flexible relations in the next stage.
These are some of the parameters of the second-round equation.
We hope that Allah Almighty will grant President Erdogan success in the runoff.

Last modified on Wednesday, 17 May 2023 10:46