The Real Cause of the Conflict
According to Amin Hassan Omar, advisor to former Sudanese President Jaafar Numeiri, the current conflict in Sudan is not just a civil war between tribes and clans. It is actually a political war with external intervention. Omar believes that certain external forces are trying to re-engineer Sudan politically and shape it according to their own interests.
External Intervention and Regional Alignment
Omar argues that the prevailing narrative in the media and diplomacy, which portrays the conflict as a battle between two generals, is not accurate. The main issue is the external intervention aimed at reshaping Sudan politically. These external forces will only accept an outcome that aligns with their vision for Sudan. General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, the leader of Sudan, cannot make decisions without the approval of the armed forces, who are well aware of the external intervention.
The Role of the Armed Forces
The majority of garrisons in Sudan are under the control of the army, except for a few peripheral cities. Omar emphasizes that a political settlement cannot be achieved by treating both sides equally. There is a nationalist team that wants to preserve Sudan's dignity and independence, and they must defeat the mercenary militia supported by foreign soldiers, funding, and weapons.
Continuation of the Conflict
Omar believes that the conflict in Sudan persists because of the regional alignment behind the two teams. The main intervention comes from external forces, and simply changing leadership will not have a significant impact on the situation.
The Role of the Rapid Support Forces
The Rapid Support Forces in Sudan have gained control over multiple areas, but they do not constitute a ruling force. The state cannot be held responsible for the empty homes left behind by fleeing citizens, as these homes are being looted, and people are being subjected to violence and rape. The Janjaweed militia only occupies some homes, and they do not have real control over the situation.
Political War, Not Civil War
Contrary to popular belief, the conflict in Sudan is not changing the social fabric of the country. It is not a civil war between tribes or clans. Instead, it is a political war created to allow political-military parties to gain control, with the support of external financiers. The majority of people are not directly involved in this war.
Losses and Difficulties for Citizens
The conflict has resulted in economic losses, insecurity, and a lack of basic necessities for Sudanese citizens. This makes it hard for them to accept a settlement. Human rights organizations accuse both parties and their supporters of violating citizens' rights, but there is clear evidence that the militia itself documents its own crimes. Many of these mercenaries are from outside Sudan and do not have citizenship rights.
Temporary Effects on Sudan
Although the conflict has caused hardships, it will only have temporary effects on the social fabric of Sudan. The country will recover once the conflict is resolved.
The Weak Government and Impasse
The Sudanese government is struggling to end the conflict due to its weak leadership and the lack of suitable replacements. While the federal government has some powers, some states are better off and more united. The government is unable to take effective action and fears being accused of introducing different political orientations.
The Role of the People
To overcome this impasse, the people themselves must mobilize and recognize the danger to themselves and their property. The main weapon of mobilization is removing people from their homes and towns. The problem with the government will then become a political issue. Successful negotiations with rebels have taken place, but they focus on political matters rather than rights, property, and honor. The Sudanese people will ultimately prevail, and the West is cautious of their massive mobilization, as it could potentially change Sudan forever.
Source: Al Jazeera
