• Ethiopia's agreement with Somaliland, viewed as a violation of international laws, has strained Mogadishu and Addis Ababa.
• President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has cancelled the agreement, stating Somalia will defend its sovereignty.
• Protests against the agreement have led to calls for mobilization, defense treaties, economic rift, and diplomatic pressure.
• The African Union, European Union, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the United States express concerns.
• The Arab League has condemned the agreement.
• The agreement may lead to landlocked countries making deals with coastal countries.

Can Mogadishu Stop Ethiopia Somaliland's deal!

Things are getting heated between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa because of a recent agreement between Ethiopia and the separatist region of Somaliland. This agreement gives Ethiopia a sea port and a military base on the Red Sea. Mogadishu is not happy about it at all.

Mogadishu's Response

Mogadishu, the capital of Somalia, is furious about the agreement. They see Somaliland as part of their own country, so they consider this agreement a violation of international laws. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud even signed a law canceling the agreement and made it clear that Somalia will defend its sovereignty.

Thousands of Somalis protested against the agreement in Mogadishu, showing their opposition to the sale of their sea.

Mogadishu's Options

Many people are wondering what Mogadishu can do to stop the implementation of the agreement. Some experts believe that Mogadishu has several options to put pressure on the Somaliland government.

One option is to mobilize the Somali public against the agreement. They can also form a defense treaty with another country, which would make it harder for Ethiopia to get access to the Somali coast.

Mogadishu can also declare a rift and stop economic cooperation with Ethiopia. They can increase diplomatic pressure by seeking support from regional and international organizations.

International Reactions

Many regional and international parties have expressed their concerns about the agreement. The African Union, the European Union, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the United States, and other countries have all called for respect of Somalia's unity and sovereignty.

The Arab League has shown its solidarity with Somalia and condemned the agreement. The Intergovernmental Authority for the Development of East Africa (IGAD) has also called for a peaceful solution.

Challenges for Somalia

Some experts believe that Somalia is facing internal weaknesses and exhaustion due to the long civil war and the activities of the Al-Shabaab movement. This limits Mogadishu's options.

However, not all citizens of Somaliland support the independence project. The Sool region has experienced violent incidents recently, which Mogadishu can use to its advantage.

State Sovereignty

At the continental level, Somalia can benefit from the African Union's commitment to nation-state sovereignty and respect for borders. This can help embarrass Ethiopia and gain support from inside and outside Africa.

Mogadishu's close cooperation with the United States in security and military matters has also been effective in combating terrorism. This can provide Somalia with Western support, as fighting terrorism is a priority for the US.

Legal Challenges

Legally, experts believe that Ethiopia may be willing to sign a similar agreement with Somaliland, but this time Somaliland will demand recognition of its independence and sovereignty in exchange. This poses a risk for Ethiopia, as it would need more international recognitions for the agreement to have legal value.

If the agreement fails, Ethiopia will not be able to withdraw its recognition, which may lead to a resort to force. However, this is difficult considering the current circumstances.

Ethiopia and Somaliland's Memorandum of Understanding

  So, Ethiopia and Somaliland have been working on an agreement called a memorandum of understanding. Some people in Ethiopia think that this agreement means that landlocked countries have the right to make deals with coastal countries to access the sea and use their ports. But why is this causing a problem in Addis Ababa?

One person named Abtedon thinks that Ethiopia is against this agreement because it's not the first time that Somaliland has made a deal with another country. In the past, Somaliland signed agreements with a company called DP World to develop a commercial and logistics center in the port of Berbera. DP World still owns 51% of the project, and the first phase was completed in 2021. This means that the port can handle up to 500,000 containers every year.

Abtedon also believes that the Prime Minister of Somaliland, Musa Bihis, wants recognition for his region's independence. He might be willing to give Ethiopia 20 kilometers of beach in exchange for that recognition, even if it's not economically beneficial.

Another person named Abdul Razzaq Karrar agrees with this idea. He thinks that if Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland as an independent country, it will be a big deal because Ethiopia is an important country in Africa. This recognition could help Somaliland a lot. Karrar also thinks that the stability and democratic system in Somaliland make it attractive to Ethiopia.

Old Problems in a New Form

This agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland has caused a lot of tension in the Horn of Africa. Many international and regional gro ups are trying to calm things down and prevent the situation from getting worse.

The Horn of Africa is already a troubled region with security issues and civil wars. If a conflict breaks out between Mogadishu (the capital of Somalia) and Addis Ababa (the capital of Ethiopia), it would be a disaster for everyone who cares about the security of the Red Sea.

Some people think that this crisis could get even worse if the Ethiopian Prime Minister tries to involve other countries in his own problems. If the tension between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa keeps growing, it could lead to more conflicts and make it harder for Somaliland to gain independence.

What Needs to Happen

With all of this going on, it's important for the countries in the region to deal with the situation realistically and objectively. Ethiopia needs to be realistic about its need for a sea port, and Mogadishu needs to find a way to resolve the Somaliland crisis without more conflict.

Source: Al Jazeera