Atlanta Fed's GDP model indicates US economy in recession

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's gross domestic product (GDP) model showed on Friday that the US economy is already in recession.

"The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth, seasonally adjusted annual rate, in the second quarter of 2022 is -2.1% on July 1, down from -1.0% on June 30," Atlanta Fed said in a statement.

The level is down from the June 27 forecast of 0.3% gain, while the next update will be made on July 7, it added.

The bank said that real personal consumption expenditures growth fell to 0.8%, from 1.7%, while real gross private domestic investment growth declined to -15.2%, from -13.2%.

The steep decline in figures indicate that the world's biggest economy could show a contraction in the April-June period of this year, after it shrank 1.6% in the January-March in the first quarter of 2022, according to the Commerce Department’s third and final reading on Wednesday.

Most economists expected the US economy to be pushed into a recession due to the Fed's aggressive monetary tightening, which made a total of 150 basis points of rate hikes since March, and signaled more in the coming months.

A survey conducted by the Financial Times and Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business showed on June 13 that 38% of respondents estimate the US economy to tip into a recession in the first half of 2023, while 30% anticipate that this could happen during the second half of next year.

S&P Global Ratings also said Thursday that central banks' sharp interest rate hikes and persistently high inflation are expected to push the US and Europe into recessions next year./aa