Is Iran Venezuela: Would Gen-Z Fail the Diehard Ayatollahs?

President Donald Trump has once again assured the US “intervention” to rescue protesters in Iran. The world is watching the so-called Gen-Z protests with caution, while a large segment of global opinion, largely shaped by Western media, portrays the Islamic Republic as fragile and perhaps collapsing, much like Venezuela. US fighter jets stationed at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar are often cited as ready to act on Washington’s command.

Why Iran Is Not Venezuela

Given Iran’s severe economic distress and mounting social pressures, such assessments may appear persuasive. Yet, in practical terms, Iran is not Venezuela. Unlike Caracas, Tehran retains robust state institutions, a coherent military doctrine, ideological legitimacy among large sections of society, and a deeply entrenched regional deterrence architecture. Venezuela collapsed under sanctions because it lacked strategic depth, reliable allies, and an autonomous defence capability. Iran, by contrast, remains capable of mounting a credible counter-response even against combined Israel–US pressure.

Netanyahu, Trump, and the Shifting Logic of US Policy

It is true that whenever Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits President Trump in the Oval Office, he often returns with ambitious and aggressive plans. However, past US administrations, particularly those of George W. Bush and Barack Obama, demonstrated a clearer understanding of regional realities, including Iran’s ability to absorb shocks and retaliate against US allies. During their tenures, Washington was not perceived as being driven from Tel Aviv. Neither AIPAC nor any single foreign leader exercised decisive control over US policy, nor was foreign policy shaped by the transactional instincts (MAGA) of a business-oriented president like Trump.

Nature of the Current Unrest in Iran

The current unrest in Iran does not appear aimed at outright regime collapse or a Mossadegh-style overthrow. Rather, it seems calibrated to distract Tehran and entangle resistance forces in limited internal strife, thereby giving Israeli room to capture the entire Palestine. Iran, it appears to be targeted more seriously at a later stage.

The Gen‑Z Movement: Overstated and Unsustainable

For now, the Gen-Z narrative in Iran appears overstated. Excessive enthusiasm is misplaced. The movement is likely to lose momentum, potentially ending in disillusionment among anti-government elements rather than systemic change.

Unintended Consequences: Iran Exposes Sleeper Cells

Ironically, US-Israeli pressure has once again provided Tehran an opportunity to identify and neutralize sleeper cells, particularly within university campuses. This is the second instance in which external intervention has inadvertently helped the Iranian state expose pro-Shah networks embedded in society. During recent Israel-US attacks, including B-bombers targeting Fordow, Iran reportedly dismantled several anti-government cells.

Israel’s Declining Intelligence Reach in Iran

Israel is gradually losing the intelligence networks that once deeply penetrated Iranian society and administration. Though delayed, Iran is now moving toward a self-sustaining posture of defence and strategic confidence. Its post-war relations with China and Russia have also transformed; neither power remains hesitant or ambivalent.

Global Tensions and the Expanding Geopolitical Chessboard

As tensions rise globally, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, the declaration of Somaliland’s independence near China’s only overseas military base in Djibouti has heightened Beijing’s strategic anxieties. China has invested in 100 ports in 63 countries. Trump’s threat to seize the Panama Canal, a critical artery for China’s access to Latin American markets, has further escalated tensions. Meanwhile, US-Israeli inroads into Central Asia, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan aligning with the Abraham Accords, have further unsettled Moscow, while Ukraine continues to bleed Moscow.

China and Russia Build Counter‑Pressure Points

In response, China and Russia are developing counter-pressure points within US-Israeli spheres of influence. Under these conditions, strengthening Iran economically and militarily has become a strategic necessity for Beijing and Moscow, not merely a favour to Tehran.

Iran’s Evolving Military Doctrine

Iran’s evolving military doctrine now reflects near superpower-level competence and a sophisticated grasp of modern warfare. Tehran has focused heavily on hypersonic missiles, advanced drone warfare, space capabilities, and indigenous small-arms production. Compared to earlier strikes, recent missile and drone attacks demonstrated greater precision and lethality.

Hypersonic Missiles and the Erosion of Israeli Deterrence

Hypersonic missiles reportedly penetrated multiple layers of missile defence across the Persian Gulf, Jordan, the Mediterranean, and Israel, including Arrow, David’s Sling, and Iron Dome. The use of inexpensive drones followed by hypersonic missiles has severely undermined Israel’s aura of invincibility. The strike on Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar further signalled Tehran’s willingness to punish Gulf states cooperating with Washington and Tel Aviv.

Fordow: A Failed Strike and Lingering Doubts

The B-bomber attacks on the Fordow nuclear facility also failed to achieve their stated objectives. Even the Pentagon contradicted President Trump’s claim that the site had been destroyed. Israel’s subsequent bombardment of the Fordow gate itself suggested lingering uncertainty about mission success.

Iran’s Expanding Military Partnerships

Russia and China are now reportedly supplying Iran with advanced stealth fighter aircraft, missile-defence systems, and satellite support for precision targeting.

The Three Pillars of the Israel‑US Strategy

The Israel-US strategy appears to have pursued three objectives: first, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities, despite Tehran’s claim that its programme falls within its rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which Iran was an early signatory. Second, the targeting of civilian infrastructure, particularly oil and gas installations, to induce economic collapse and social unrest. Third, regime change and the dismantling of the Islamic system established in 1979.

Netanyahu’s Calls and Iran’s Economic Crisis

Prime Minister Netanyahu has repeatedly urged the Iranian public to rise against their government, promising full external support. Undeniably, Iran is passing through one of its most difficult phases. The economy is near stagnation, the rial has collapsed—one US dollar now approaching 100,000 rials, exports have slowed, essential goods are scarce, inflation exceeds 50%, and fiscal pressure has crossed sustainable limits.

Internal Weaknesses and Structural Failures

Yet the Islamic government must also introspect and clean the system of corruption, mismanagement, and declining external networks. The protests initially began among merchants and shopkeepers. The crisis intensified after comprehensive EU sanctions, while Tehran failed to diversify exports beyond oil. China remains the primary buyer, but its economic slowdown and engagement with Gulf oil producers limit its capacity to absorb more Iranian crude. Russia’s discounted oil exports have further eroded Iran’s market share.

Public Opinion and the Logic of National Crisis

Public opinion in Iran remains divided. Many view the protests as foreign-engineered. If Israel attacks Iran at this stage, the unrest is likely to dissipate, giving the state justification for a harsh crackdown. History shows that Iranians rarely revolt against the state during national crises, regardless of corruption or misgovernance.

A Pretext for Escalation

Paradoxically, the unrest also offers Tehran a pretext to escalate confrontation with Israel.

Global Consequences of a Hypothetical Collapse

If the Gen-Z movement were ever to succeed, it would not be isolated or episodic. Unlike Nepal, Sri Lanka, or Bangladesh, the collapse of the Islamic Republic would carry global consequences. Shockwaves would reverberate through Riyadh, Islamabad, Beijing, Moscow, Brussels, Brasília, and beyond.

Why Iran Cannot Be Treated Like Venezuela

Circumstances demonstrate that the United States cannot treat Iran as it treated Venezuela, nor Khamenei as it treated Maduro. Israel remains Washington’s nearest and most prized pressure point, and Tehran has already demonstrated both the will and the capability to respond to Israeli attacks. Post-1979 Iran is not merely a political entity; it is an ideology. Tehran taps 19% of global crude, passing through Hormuz. This distinction requires careful understanding in Washington. Nevertheless, President Trump is unpredictable, while Prime Minister Netanyahu is a charmer who may yet entice him with visions of a Riviera, a Trump Tower, and gas-drilling hubs along the IMEC corridor.

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 The views and opinions expressed on this site are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the opinions or positions of Al-Mujtama Magazine.