Escalation Factors:

The major security breakthrough achieved by the Israelis against Hizbullah, when they blew up thousands of radio receivers (pagers) owned by Hizbullah members and cadres, further fueled the conflict raging in northern Israel and southern Lebanon, intensifying confrontations between Israel and Hizbullah. The breach was unprecedented, with estimates citing over 3,200 injuries, including 400 serious ones, and 32 killed. This raised more questions than ever about the likelihood of a large-scale war and the possibility of an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.

Hizbullah’s participation in Operation al-Aqsa Flood, in support of the resistance in the Gaza Strip (GS), led to the displacement of about 100 thousand Israelis from northern Israel, negatively impacted tourism and the regional economy, and tied down a significant portion of the Israeli army on the northern front.

Following the assassination of its chief of staff, Fuad Shukr (Haj Muhsen), the assassination of Hamas leader Isma‘il Haniyyah, and increased Israeli escalation against Hizbullah and the resistance, Hizbullah enhanced its military operations by expanding the targeted areas in northern Israel. It employed precision missiles and drones that delivered effective strikes, further widening the battle zone and threatening an additional 100 thousand Israelis with displacement. This increased pressure on the Israeli government to shift more focus to the northern front.

Therefore, on Monday, 16/9/2024, the Israeli Cabinet approved the addition of a new objective to its declared war on GS, focusing on securing the northern front and ensuring the “safe” return of displaced Israelis to their homes in light of the Hizbullah threat.

This was accompanied by military and security assessments from senior officers and officials indicating that the military campaign in GS should conclude, as no further objectives can be achieved. They suggested it was time to reach a deal with Hamas and shift the military focus to northern Israel, making the war with Hizbullah and southern Lebanon the primary theater of the combat.

These assessments emphasized leveraging the momentum of the war to impose new conditions on Hizbullah to ensure the security of Israelis in the north—such as Hizbullah’s withdrawal and the prevention of any military or logistical presence of the resistance at a “safe distance” from the armistice lines, among other scenarios and guarantees.

Some Israeli military experts believe that ending the war with GS without addressing the issues in northern Israel and southern Lebanon is futile. They argue that the notion of the Israeli army needing about two years to rehabilitate and regroup (after halting the war in GS) before confronting Hizbullah is flawed. This is because Hizbullah’’s capacity to recover and enhance its capabilities, with support from Iran, is considered to be more dynamic and effective than the Israeli army’s ability to regain its strength. These experts believe it is essential to persist with the attrition and war, aiming to draw the US into the battle, and they are determined not to cease until their conditions are imposed on Hizbullah.

The elements of the Israeli escalation are reinforced by the state of “the arrogance of power” with the advanced military and intelligence capabilities of the Israeli side, strong US military support, and the inability of Arab, Muslim and international environments to curb Israeli aggression.

The Israeli success in carrying out grievous assassinations of leading military and security figures from Hizbullah and Hamas in Lebanon, as well as their success in executing a pre-emptive strike just before the large-scale attack that Hizbullah had planned in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr and Isma‘il Haniyyah, has further emboldened the Israelis. The harsh blow came with the explosion of the pagers, one of the most prominent means of internal communication among Hizbullah cadres and its security system, further fueling the Israeli appetite for war and their clear desire for escalation.

Based on these considerations, Israeli calculations aim to take pre-emptive action to prevent or weaken the chances of a response from Hizbullah and its allies, while not anticipating an overwhelming or decisive response that would lead to an all-out war. This assessment reflects both recent experiences and the political judgment that Hizbullah, Iran and the resistance forces outside Palestine do not wish to enter a regional war and prefer to maintain specific rules of engagement.

Restraining Factors:

On the other hand, despite the increased risk of escalation between Israel and Lebanon, influenced by the extreme religious and nationalist Zionist right which holds sway in decision-making, and despite Netanyahu’s efforts to involve the US in regional confrontations against Iran and resistance forces in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq, there are significant challenges that hinder Israel from engaging in a large-scale regional war or a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, including logistical difficulties.

Israel remains entrenched in the GS quagmire and has yet to achieve any of its objectives. The resistance in GS remains strong and effective, while the Israeli army continues to be depleted and unable to control the Strip or “liberate” Israeli captives.

The Israeli army is experiencing a significant crisis in its human resources and combat personnel. In response, it has extended the service of reserve forces, trained naval personnel for ground roles, and has recruited African immigrants by offering financial incentives and permanent residence in Israel.

There is a significant shortage of equipment, particularly tanks, bulldozers and personnel carriers, many of which were destroyed by the resistance during the confrontations in GS.

There are widespread resignations from the Israeli army, with the most recent being one thousand officers expressing their desire to leave the army.

As such, it would be very difficult to launch a ground attack on Lebanon that would mobilize some 80–120 thousand Israeli soldiers.

On the other hand, the US, along with Israel’s Western allies, do not want the war to escalate into a regional war.

There are US and Western concerns about potential unrest in Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel.

These fears are intensified by the belief among opponents of expanding the war, both inside and outside Israel, that if Israel has struggled to address GS for 11 months, it is even less capable of initiating a regional war that it may start but cannot control. Such a war would expose numerous gaps and weaknesses, leading to increased losses, particularly if prolonged, in an already strained Israeli environment.

This situation enhances the prospects for the resistance’s victory and the potential beginning of the reverse countdown for the Zionist project. Consequently, they attribute Netanyahu and his extremist team’s desire to expand the war not to Israel’s higher interests but to their personal ambition to remain in power, driven by their arrogant mindset and a state of “denial” and reckless aggression.

Conclusion:
Therefore, Israel may seek more “calculated escalation” against Lebanon and might resort to using artillery and air force bombardments, including fighter jets and drones, and become more active in assassinations and intelligence operations. However, it seems that it has not yet approached the stage of a ground invasion or a declaration of total war.

On April 18, 1996, the Zionist entity committed a horrific massacre in the Lebanese town of Qana. To ensure that we do not forget the atrocities of this entity, “Al-Mujtama” is republishing this article written by Dr. Salah al-Din Arqah'dan, originally published in issue 1714 on August 12, 2006.

Despite the massacres and the blood of the Lebanese, the Zionists will reap nothing but terror and political failure, which now threaten Olmert's government.

Qana, a serene southern Lebanese town, holds artifacts that date back to prehistoric times, in addition to the miracle recorded in the Bible performed by Isa (Jesus) (peace be upon him) at a wedding there. Visitors can clearly see engravings in the rock believed to depict the disciples of Isa (peace be upon him) who witnessed this miracle.

In 1996, the Zionist enemy launched its US-manufactured missiles under the dense cover of American diplomatic maneuvers and stances, using the veto power to block any attempt to condemn the aggression, which the Zionists called “Operation Grapes of Wrath.” These missiles were deliberately targeted at a gathering of Qana residents near a United Nations observation post, resulting in the deaths of 110 Lebanese, both Muslims and Christians, who were buried together in a cemetery that has since become a warning and a testament to the truth of Zionism.

Cautious peace returned to Lebanon following the Zionist withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000. However, the Shebaa Farms remained a pretense for constant Zionist threats and provocations against Lebanon. The Zionist enemy continued to detain Lebanese, some of whom had been held since the 1970s. The United Nations resolutions calling for full withdrawal and the return of prisoners remained merely on paper!

Zionist Racism Under American Cover

The First Qana Massacre ended with the burial of the victims, but the massacre, its repercussions, and its symbolism remained entrenched in the halls of the United Nations through documents and Lebanese protests against the ongoing occupation and the non-release of prisoners. It also remained imprinted in the memory of the Lebanese, as the Zionist withdrawal did not alter its symbolism. Qana remains a living testament to the Zionist doctrine and their methods of dealing with others, embodying the only true Zionist slogan: “A Good Arab is a Dead Arab!”

Since 1936, the Lebanese have continuously and relentlessly suffered from Zionist violence, directly and indirectly. They also endure hardships due to the unwavering American support for Zionist policies. The Americans do not recognize any rights for any party other than the Zionists in the region.

Here lies the problem for Arabs and non-Arabs alike in the Zionist doctrinal perception, which views non-Jewish nations as creatures made by God in human form to serve them, having no rights whatsoever, and the crumbs they receive are seen as a favor for which they should be grateful.

Applying Zionist Doctrine in Iraq

You probably recall that before the Americans directed their occupying forces towards Iraq, they sought lessons in silencing conscience from the Zionists. The question they posed, which was reported by the media at the time, was “How should Israeli field commanders order their troops to destroy houses over their inhabitants' heads without fearing disobedience?”

You may also recall that the Americans were not dumb, and some of the stories from Abu Ghraib prison are irrefutable evidence of this. Inhumane, dead-conscience Zionists remain stationed on occupied Iraqi soil, ready at any moment to transfer their experiences from Jenin and Qana to the American occupation forces.

Rice's Green Light

Who hasn't heard U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice say, on the suffering land of Beirut and just hours before the Qana massacre, that “the Israelis are not obliged to an immediate ceasefire before achieving the security objectives of their military campaign!”

Yes! Rice stood over the bodies of our mothers and children to deliver the harshest rebuke to her Lebanese ruling elite audience for forcing the US to intervene directly to eradicate the forces of fundamentalism and extremism, as she put it. This is because the Lebanese government failed to carry out this task for the Americans. Washington's hope was that Arab governments would undertake the massacre themselves, eliminating factions resisting American policy and Israeli occupation, sparing the Israelis the trouble and the US the task of cleaning up the Israelis' image, tainted by the blood of Lebanese children, women, and the elderly, in the corridors of the United Nations and beyond.

Rice's statement gave the green light for the latest Qana massacre, just as previous statements sparked the first Qana massacre and others alike. Qana has large and extended similar massacres, from Bahr al-Baqar in Egypt to the northern borders of Lebanon, passing through over 400 Palestinian cities and villages that share the same fate as Qana and Deir Yassin.

Zionist Failure

But what has Israel reaped in Lebanon? What have the Zionists achieved so far from their declared goals?

The numbers and facts on the ground say “Nothing.”

The Lebanese government's and people's stance has become more unified and resilient in the face of Israeli violence.

The popularity of the Israeli occupation army has declined both within and outside Israel, as it has failed spectacularly to confront a popular militia whose resilience is considered a victory by all standards and a defeat for Israel.

More importantly, the operations of the Lebanese resistance targeting the Israeli interior have, for the first time in the history of the conflict, instilled terror in the hearts of the Israelis, disrupted production, emptied the port of Haifa of its ships, and forced hundreds of thousands of Israelis to stay in shelters and bunkers out of fear of the resistance's rockets.

The Zionists have no more tricks up their sleeve beyond what we've already seen. However, the resistance against the Zionist-American project still has much in reserve that has yet to be deployed. The current war will eventually end, whether it drags on or not, and the Zionists will have to choose a more realistic leadership to guide them out of the Lebanese quicksand with the least possible losses.

If only Arab officials would reconsider their analysis of the crisis and its solutions and strive to preserve lives that Allah has forbidden to be taken except with justice.

And if only the current American administration, preoccupied with igniting conflicts across the world, would look at the legend of “Armageddon” from a different perspective. Christ (peace be upon him) was Palestinian, and his disciples were Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, and Jordanian. If only they would realize, even once, that the Zionists track every land where Isa (peace be upon him) ever walked, destroying and sabotaging them. And for the Americans and Zionists engrossed in reading the Torah's symbols, they should pay attention to the fact that the curse of Qana is a tangible and proven reality that struck the former Zionist leadership in 1996.

Any rational person would acknowledge that it has affected the current leadership in terms of its popularity and the confidence of the Israeli people in its army. Let them and their disciples beware of the curse of Qana, wherever they may be!

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