The Libyan ceasefire agreement, which is being painted as a permanent one, could soon face increased opposition if third party interference is not dealt with. The UN-brokered (UNSMIL) agreement has been hailed by the 5+5 Joint Military Commission members and the Tripoli-based government as a major step forward. At the same time, Libyan general Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army in the eastern part of the country, has been strangely quiet on the deal. His backers, mainly Russia, the UAE and Egypt, have been generally supportive of the agreement but have warned that there is still more to be done. Global oil markets are already preparing for a possible wave of Libyan oil in the coming months, with production being projected to hit 1 million bpd. Libya’s national oil company NOC has now lifted the force majeure on all its production fields and export terminals. While all of this is positive news for Libya, the country’s reentry into global oil and gas markets will depend upon the ability of the two main warring parties to bring a decade-long civil war to an end. The ultimate goal of the UN-led efforts for peace is a unified governance framework, with political discussions taking place on October 26 and face-to-face meetings in Tunisia from November 9 onwards. Both parties, the LNA and the GNA, are eager to boost oil exports as the extra revenue is badly needed, but that is no guarantee of peace. The recent announcement that the leader of the GNA-led Tripoli-government, Al Sarraj, will step down by the end of October does little to ensure onlooker about the party’s stability. At the same time, Libyan general Haftar is far from secure as the leader of the LNA. There are growing indications that the disastrous LNA military operations in the west, resulting in a military stalemate, have undermined his position severely.

The certainty of Libya’s oil future depends upon the stability of the government. While there are some promising signs at the moment, the ongoing interference from third parties such as Turkey, Iran, Russia and the UAE could threaten that stability. Without the consent and support of these external parties, it is unlikely that a long-term ceasefire will be realized.

Just after the ceasefire agreement, Erdogan made a veiled threat of continued fighting. Ankara seems to be unhappy with one specific article in the agreement that includes the expulsion of all mercenaries from the country, a move that is designed to end Russian and Turkish influence in Libya. The Turkish president has claimed that the agreement lacks credibility. While leaving a mosque in Istanbul after Friday prayers, Erdogan said that the deal had been made by two delegates, one representing Khalifa Haftar, Commander-in-Chief of the Libyan National Army (LNA), and the other a military commander from Misrata representing the Government of National Accord (GNA) headed by Fayez Al Sarraj. As the deal wasn’t made by the highest figures in each party, Erdogan stated that “we do not know the validity of (the decision) to withdraw mercenaries from there within three months.” Turkey’s apparent willingness to remain on the battlefield is a clear sign that the current ceasefire is far from a certainty. Some Libyan sources were quoted as saying that fighting should resume after Defence Minister Salah al-Din Al Nimroush pushed military reinforcements to a number of cities in the western region. Several military maneuvers by the GNA have also been reported around Sirte in recent weeks. Turkey appears to be supporting the hardliners within the GNA, as represented by Minister of Interior Fathi Bashagha, who is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Bashagha is yet to openly support the Geneva ceasefire.

At the same time, President Erdogan added to uncertainty by indicating that Turkey’s military deals with Libya’s GNA will not be altered. Libyan Defense Minister Salaheddin Al Namroush confirmed that statement, saying that “the signing of the initial agreement does not include the military cooperation agreement with the state of Turkey, an ally of the legitimate government.” He reiterated that Turkish training is needed to counter possible LNA military operations. UNSMIL head Stephanie Turco Williams said, however, that an article of the agreement states that military training activities that are being held under military agreements would be halted and training teams would leave the country until a new unity government takes over. At the same time, a video published by the GNA’s “Volcano of Rage” operation’s room showed Libyan forces carrying out military exercises in Turkey. The blatant disregard for that article by Turkey suggests the agreement is already on shaky ground.

The stance taken by Turkey towards the current ceasefire agreement will not be taken lightly by the parties that support the LNA, most notably the UAE, Russia, and Egypt. Renewed military action is likely to be seen as the UN agreement has failed to successfully remove third parties. Libya’s oil future is not only dependent on UN-EU brokered agreements, but it remains largely dependent on Turkey’s actions in the region. Ankara’s confrontation with Cairo, Abu Dhabi and even Moscow, is bad news for Libya. Crises in the East Mediterranean and the Caucasus are directly linked to the current Libyan conflict. Unless Erdogan changes his current aggressive policy in the region, a full-scale re-emergence of Libyan oil is unlikely. The current reopening of Libya’s hydrocarbon treasures will likely be short-lived and could well destabilizing markets once again.

Ethiopian authorities have banned peaceful protests against ethnically motivated killings which were due to take place on 28 October, in direct violation of the rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly, Amnesty International said today.

The National Amhara Movement (NAMA), an opposition political party, had called for protests following the killing of scores of people from the Amhara ethnic minority in recent months. Officials of NAMA were on 27 October prevented by the police from accessing their party office in Addis Ababa, and from traveling to the various locations where the protests were to take place in the Amhara regional state.

The killings are abhorrent and serve as a clarion call to the Ethiopian authorities to safeguard the right to life. People have a right to protest and call for justice for the lives lost.

Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa

The spokesperson of the Amhara Regional government, Gizachew Muluneh, on 26 October described the protests as “illegal and unnecessary” and warned that regional security forces would be deployed, and that there was a possibility of violence if the protests went ahead.

There has been a surge of deadly ethnic violence targeting Amharas in various parts of the country, including in Benishangul, Oromia and the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states.

“The killings are abhorrent and serve as a clarion call to the Ethiopian authorities to safeguard the right to life. People have a right to protest and call for justice for the lives lost. The authorities must ensure security forces are deployed to facilitate and manage the protests whenever they may occur, not to disperse or otherwise inhibit protesters,” said Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa.

The authorities must ensure security forces are deployed to facilitate and manage the protests whenever they may occur, not to disperse or otherwise inhibit protesters.

Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa

According to the Ethiopian government, at least 45 people were in September, killed by groups of armed youths targeting Amharas in Benishangul. In October there were 31 more killings in the Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Region (SNNPR) in such attacks.

“The authorities must not only thoroughly, effectively and impartially investigate all the killings and hold those responsible to account, but also put in place measures to ensure protests take place peacefully,” said Deprose Muchena.

In Oromia, at least 160 people were killed in June, including dozens of members of ethnic and religious minority groups, according to the Federal Police, following the violence that erupted after the killing of popular Oromo musician Hachalu Hundessa. Although some of the protests were peaceful, others turned violent as organized youth attacked members of ethnic and religious minorities.

People have a right to protest to exercise their rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly. They should not be killed, injured or arrested simply for expressing their views but instead they should be able to count on the protection of the authorities in exercising their right to peaceful assembly.

Deprose Muchena, Amnesty International’s Director for East and Southern Africa

And since August, Ethiopian security forces have used excessive force to disperse peaceful protesters calling for the release of detained opposition leaders Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba, killing at least 20 people in Oromia’s West Hararghe and Bale Zones.

“People have a right to protest to exercise their rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly. They should not be killed, injured or arrested simply for expressing their views but instead they should be able to count on the protection of the authorities in exercising their right to peaceful assembly,” said Deprose Muchena.

MOGADISHU, Somalia

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) confirmed Tuesday that two frontline workers were killed in a militant attack in Mogadishu.

The UN said the polio workers risked their lives to provide critical health services to vulnerable Somali children and offered condolences to the families.

”I offer my sincere condolences to the families, friends and colleagues of two polio workers who were killed in Somalia earlier today. UNICEF condemns the attack in the strongest terms. Humanitarian workers are not a target,” UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said in a statement.

The UN noted attacks on health workers are a violation of international law and must not be tolerated and urged authorities to conduct a comprehensive investigation, “Humanitarian workers should never be a target,” it said.

Somalia is among high-risk polio outbreak countries because of its fragile and vulnerable population that mostly includes nomads, displaced people and those living in rural and slum areas.

No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack but Somali-based, al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group, al-Shabaab, has claimed responsibility in the past for similar attacks in the Horn of Africa country.

BOGOTA, Colombia

Latin America and the Caribbean remain the region with the highest coronavirus death rate, with more than 394,000 fatalities or a third of the world’s total.   

Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico are among the top 10 countries in terms of coronavirus cases, with over 8.4 million infections between them. 

Brazil 

A fire broke out at one of Rio de Janeiro’s main hospitals Tuesday, forcing rescue workers to evacuate at least 200 people. 

Two patients with COVID-19 died during the evacuation process after their conditions deteriorated, according to the hospital’s management.  

Firefighters took three hours to control the blaze in a warehouse located in the basement of Bonsucesso Hospital. Its cause is still unknown. 

Brazil now has more than 5.4 million cases of the virus and nearly 158,000 deaths. 

Mexico 

Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo reported that she has tested positive for COVID-19. 

“Last night, I was informed that I tested positive for COVID-19. I feel good, strong and I am under medical monitoring from the Secretary of Health of Mexico City,” she said Tuesday. “I will continue working and coordinating all activities remotely, with the same effort as always,” she wrote on her Twitter account. 

Sheinbaum attended a meeting on Monday led by Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. 

Mexico has 895,326 cases of the coronavirus and 89,171 deaths. 

Ecuador  

Ecuador will need about $150 million to purchase COVID-19 vaccines and immunize 60% of its population, Deputy Health Minister Xavier Solorzano said Tuesday as local authorities resumed restrictive measures in fear of a coronavirus resurgence. 

The country, which is facing an economic downturn exacerbated by the pandemic, has signed supply agreements with major pharmaceutical firms including Pfizer Inc and BioNTech and the British firm AstraZeneca and it also participates in the COVAX program led by the World Health Organization. 

"The initial amount is approximately 150 million (dollars) that we need to start, but that will guarantee that about 8 million people can be vaccinated. We are talking about 60% of the population," said Solorzano. 

Ecuador has 163,192 cases and 12,588 deaths from the coronavirus, according to Johns Hopkins University.  

Honduras  

On National Doctors' Day, health professionals in Honduras are mourning the loss of 49 of their colleagues who have died since the disease began to spread in the country more than seven months ago. 

Health workers have been asking the population to avoid getting infected with the virus, which has already killed 2,633 people in the country and infected 93,966. 

The pandemic is still on the rise in the country of roughly 9.9 million people, more than 60% of whom are poor and whose situation has been made worse by the deadly disease. 

El Salvador 

El Salvador is nearing the 33,000 positive cases of COVID-19 detected since mid-March, when the pandemic broke out in the country, and is close to 1,000 deaths from the disease, according to official data as of Tuesday./aa

France's largest business group on Monday backed the country's president amid his controversial claims about Islam, despite widespread protests and boycott calls in Muslim countries.

In an interview with the private RMC Radio, the chairman of France's largest employer's union, MEDEF, characterized the international backlash to Emmanuel Macron's comments as "blackmail."

"We must put our principles before the possibility of developing our business," said Geoffroy Roux de Bezieu, urging companies not to buckle under a boycott on French goods.

His comments came after a recent announcement by Macron on his controversial plans to crack down on what he dubbed "Islamist separatism" in France.

Macron's remarks sparked huge controversy and a boycott of French goods, including dairy products and cosmetics, by multiple Muslim countries, including Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, Iran, Turkey and Pakistan. Demonstrations have also taken place with posters of Macron's set alight in some instances.

The French president made the statements in the wake of the recent murder of teacher Samuel Paty outside Paris.

Samuel Paty, a 47-year-old father who taught history and geography at Bois-d'Aulne College in Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, was brutally murdered by Abdullakh Anzorov, an 18-year-old man of Chechen origin.

The teacher, during one of his classes on freedom of expression, had shown the controversial cartoons depicting Prophet Muhammad, according to the reports. Anzorov was killed by police in the aftermath of the attack. An investigation is ongoing.

The murder also gave rise to a massive police probe involving over 80 investigations and multiple suspects being questioned and taken into custody.

Last Thursday, Macron led a tribute to Paty in Paris, along with high-ranking French officials. In his speech, Macron said Paty's death was an act of "gratuitous terrorism."

Macron also vowed that France would continue to allow cartoons of the Muslim Prophet Muhammad that had sparked outcry among Muslims across the world./aa

ADEN, Yemen

At least 15 Houthi rebels were killed Monday in Yemen amid clashes with army troops and Saudi-led coalition forces, the Houthi-run Saba news agency said.

The report did not include details on the clashes.

Yemen has been beset by violence and chaos since 2014, when Houthi rebels overran much of the country, including the capital Sanaa.

The crisis escalated in 2015 when the Saudi-led coalition launched a devastating air campaign aimed at rolling back Houthi territorial gains.

More than 100,000 Yemenis, including civilians, are believed to have been killed in the conflict, which has led to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with millions at risk of starvation./aa

GENEVA

Last week saw the highest number of COVID-19 cases reported so far, and 46% of all the global cases were from the European region accounting for nearly one-third of all deaths, the two top World Health Organization (WHO) officials said Monday.

"There's no question that the European region is an epicenter for disease right now," said Mike Ryan, the director of WHO's emergency response program, who was speaking at a twice-weekly webinar from the global headquarters of the world health body.

The WHO official noted that the European area extends from Vladivostok in Russia's Far East to Reykjavik in Iceland in the west and is a broader conceptual footprint than the European Union.

"Right now, we're well behind this virus in Europe, so getting ahead of it is going to take some, some serious acceleration on what we do, and maybe much more comprehensive nature of measures that are going to be needed to catch up with and get ahead of this virus.

"It may require further sacrifice for many, many people in terms of personal lives," said Ryan.

He explained that there's a lot of free movement, and therefore, it may require shutting down and restricting movement and having to stay at home orders to take the heat out of the pandemic's current phase.

Earlier, WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus said, "Last week saw the highest number of COVID-19 cases reported so far.

"Many countries in the northern hemisphere are seeing a concerning rise in cases and hospitalizations. And intensive care units are filling up to capacity in some places, particularly in Europe and North America," said Tedros.

The world must do all it can to protect health workers, and the best way to do that is for each person to take every precaution to reduce the risk of transmission for themselves and others.

"No one wants more so-called lockdowns. But if we want to avoid them, we all have to play our part," said Tedros.

He said the fightback against the pandemic is everyone's business.

"We cannot have the economic recovery we want and live our lives the way we did before the pandemic.

"We can keep our kids in school; we can keep businesses open; we can preserve lives and livelihoods. We can do it! But we must all make trade-offs, compromises, and sacrifices," said the WHO chief.

He said that when leaders act quickly and deliberately, the virus can be suppressed.

"But, where there has been political division at the national level; where there has been blatant disrespect for science and health professionals, confusion has spread, and cases and deaths have mounted," said Tedros.

According to US-based Johns Hopkins University, the world has 43.23 million virus cases and 1,156,212 deaths.

The US is hardest-hit country with 8,661,917 cases and 225,379 deaths/aa

HATAY, Turkey

Ambulances and police squads were dispatched to the Iskenderun district of Turkey's southern Hatay province after an explosion shook the town center on Monday evening.

The blast hit the town's Fener Street, which was closed to traffic after the incident.

Hatay Governor Rahmi Dogan said on Twitter that there were no casualties due in the incident.

He said the explosion took place shortly after security forces neutralized one of the two suspected terrorists, whom they had pursued.

The operation is ongoing, he added.

Late on Monday, Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu said the two terrorists involved in the explosion were neutralized.

Following Soylu's announcement, Dogan held a press conference, detailing anti-terror operations against PKK terrorists in the region.

“As of today, the PKK terrorist organization has been destroyed in the Amanos region and there are no [members] of the PKK terrorist organization left," he said.

Mt. Amanos -- also called Mt. Nur -- is known to be used as a hideout by the YPG/PKK terror group.

In its more than 30-year terror campaign against Turkey, the PKK -- listed as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU -- has been responsible for the deaths of nearly 40,000 people, including women, children and infants. The YPG is the PKK’s branch in Syria, just across Turkey's southern border./aa