In a first-of-its-kind precedent, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants on Thursday, November 21st, against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Ya'akov Golan, on charges of committing war crimes in Gaza. These include the use of starvation as a weapon of war by preventing aid such as food, water, and medicine, exposing the population to extreme suffering, and committing crimes against humanity such as murder and persecution, deliberate attacks against civilian populations, and direct responsibility for the actions of its army against civilians in Gaza. This comes after the rejection of the appeals made by the occupation state regarding this matter, affirming that there are logical reasons for issuing arrest orders against them as they are responsible for these crimes.

The court stated that the acceptance of the occupation state's jurisdiction is not necessary, and it considered that the disclosure of these arrest warrants is in the interest of Palestinian victims.

Importance and consequences:

Despite the unlimited support that the Zionist occupation state receives from the United States, which seeks to protect and defend it in United Nations organizations, such as its recent use of the veto power in the Security Council against the resolution to stop the war on Gaza, such a decision may have significant importance on both the international and Palestinian levels:

- It represents a significant step towards holding Zionist officials accountable for actions that the international community considers blatant violations of human rights and international law.

- It affects the reputation of the occupation state on the international level and increases political and economic pressure on it.

- It provides support for voices calling for Palestinian rights in international forums and demonstrates the International Criminal Court's commitment to fighting crimes and preventing impunity.

- It encourages some countries and international groups to take stronger positions against Zionist policies.

Reactions:

The decision received mixed international reactions, including:

- Palestinians: The Palestinian Authority and its supporters considered that investigating Zionist crimes would be a step towards achieving justice for the victims of Zionist violations in Palestinian territories. International human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International, emphasized the importance of the decision in achieving international justice for the victims of the crimes.

- Zionists: The occupation state considered the decision illegal and refused the court's jurisdiction to address issues related to Palestinian territories, pointing out that Palestine is not a sovereign state and has no right to present cases to the court.

- Americans: Although not a member of the court, the United States expressed support for the occupation state and opposed the court, calling for not recognizing its decisions regarding Palestinian issues.

- European and international: Many European countries such as the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Sweden, and Norway supported the International Criminal Court's position, emphasizing the need for parties to comply with international law. While other countries expressed reservations about some details of the investigations, such as France and Italy, while emphasizing the importance of finding a political solution to the Palestinian-Zionist conflict.

Impacts and interactions:

The decision had a significant impact on Netanyahu internally, externally, and on a diplomatic level:

- Internally: The decision was an opportunity to strengthen his political position domestically, using it to appear before the Zionist public as a defender of his country's security and sovereignty. He considered this decision as part of an international campaign against him and his state, which strengthens his support among extremist right-wing circles, and he pointed out that the court applies double standards and affirmed that his state will always be committed to defending itself against any threats, helping him to gain support from wide segments of the Zionist people.

Externally: The decision escalated tensions between the entity and some European countries that supported the investigations, as well as with other countries in the United Nations, although some major powers, like the United States, stood by their Zionist ally. However, the court's decision had negative implications on the international image of the occupation state, which threatens its isolation internationally.

Diplomatically: Confronting the decision on the international stage requires Netanyahu to implement intense diplomatic strategies and make additional efforts to maintain its alliances, especially with the United States, and continue to pressure the International Criminal Court.

Reasons and factors:

Several reasons contributed to the decision, including:

- The increasing number of Palestinian civilian casualties in Gaza due to the Zionist war, which resulted in over 200,000 martyrs and injured, causing growing international concern. The difficult humanitarian situation in Gaza, including the ongoing Zionist blockade for many years, significantly contributed to the increasing calls for investigations into crimes against humanity, putting immense pressure on the International Criminal Court by human rights organizations and the international community to investigate such issues.

- The exaggerated use of military force by the occupation state against innocent Palestinian civilians, interpreting international humanitarian law (such as the Geneva Conventions) in modern conflicts, especially in areas like Gaza where there are no traditional frontlines, and the lack of parity in weapons and armies makes assessing the distinction between military and civilian targets complex.

- Palestinian human rights organizations and factions demanding charges of war crimes and genocide against Palestinian civilians in Gaza, including indiscriminate shelling of cities and densely populated areas, targeting civilian infrastructure and innocent civilians, considering this within the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, which should be concerned with investigating such cases.

- The accumulation of information resulting from continuous investigations conducted by the court, relying on strong testimonies and evidence proving the occupation state's violation of international law and humanitarian law in Gaza and implicating both Netanyahu and Gantz personally in those crimes as the individuals leading the war on Gaza and giving orders to the army.

The decision of the International Criminal Court is considered a new and significant step towards holding the entity accountable for its international and humanitarian crimes, and it will remain a stigma haunting its leaders, who were described by the decision as terrorists and criminals, with significant implications on security and politics in the Middle East in the present and near future.

The Zionist entity was nothing but a colony planted by American and European imperialism in the heart of the Arab and Islamic nation, especially after the Arabs failed to achieve their political and economic independence and to rid themselves of European and American subjugation and domination; This contributed to the success of the Jews in exploiting Arab weakness to plant the roots of their purported state in the Middle East region and on Arab land.
More than 75 years ago, specifically in 1948, the Jews were able to declare their state by military force and European and American support to become a strange settler entity that surrounded the Arab and Middle Eastern region.
But imperial colonization helped them to achieve their goals and strategies towards the Arab world, which is based on the belief in the necessity of dividing it into different ethnic and religious states, in order to make control easier; An Arab world divided, torn apart, and fragmented makes it easy to control politically, culturally, and mentally, and opens up a large space for American and Western intervention in all its issues, drawing its policies in line with American and Western interests, and enhancing the dominant Zionist presence militarily and economically to terrorize and tame the region.
Re-shaping the region
There is agreement among the components of Zionist-American thought on the necessity of reshaping the Middle East in line with their strategic interests, as evidenced today when talking about the so-called "Greater Zionist State" as the nucleus of this project by expanding its boundaries without declared limits, from the Philadelphia line through Egypt to the Litani River, and areas from East of the Jordan River in the Kingdom through Southwest Syria and perhaps more.
At the United Nations platform, just a few days ago, the Prime Minister of the Zionist entity, Benjamin Netanyahu, stood in a semi-empty hall from which most representatives of the world's countries had withdrawn, proud and triumphant as if he were the president of the whole world and the chief rabbi reciting texts from the Torah and the Talmud, outlining the region's maps and even the world he wants as the leader of "God's chosen people" and the forces of good in the world, disregarding all international decisions in the Security Council, and even those issued by the General Assembly of the United Nations from which he preaches, accusing the world of anti-Semitism and opposing the only victim in history, even opposing the foundations of global security and peace, which he sees himself as the only one keen on in facing the "forces of evil", and announcing that his ongoing war on various fronts aims to change the face of the Middle East in cooperation with his American and European allies, who have declared their full support for all Zionist decisions without even turning to their Arab allies in the region.
The New Middle East
The new Middle East that Netanyahu wants in his statements and speeches and that the United States and Western countries align with, has no place for a Palestinian state, or a state of disconnected cantons under Zionist security, military, and economic control, no place for resistance factions in the region, and no place for common Arab issues, an East Middle East that accepts the existence of the Zionist state as a strong natural state that imposes its dominance in the region without challenge or resistance, and drags Arab countries to normalize with it out of fear for their interests.
A new Middle East differs from what the Palestinians want, who see the Zionist state as a state of colonization and occupation, and see in the resistance that the legal and legitimate provisions ensure their only way to obtain their deprived rights and emancipate themselves from the oppression they have been subjected to since the Zionist state occupied their lands and confiscated their will and their right to live in dignity like other countries in the world.
A new Middle East differs from what Arab countries and peoples want, who see peace as a way to resolve conflicts based on initiatives and agreements that the Zionist state does not believe in, as it has built its policy on power and intimidation, armed with America and the Western world powers that support and back it amid Arab dispersion and preoccupation with other issues at the expense of their primary cause, which is the Palestinian issue.
Scenarios of success and failure
The concept of the New Middle East, which was put forward by the former President of the United States, George Bush Jr. in 2002, and adopted by the United States in 2004, and which was promoted by then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, was just a narrative with evolving ideas with every conflict and development in the region to improve the face of the wars that America engages in through its proxies in the region. It is understood that this vision cannot be achieved, no matter how much it is promoted and its image improved. It cannot deceive the people even if governments accept it, for many reasons:

- The ongoing tensions in the region, which lead to destabilizing stability politically, economically, and socially, making it difficult to implement any vision to shape the region without resolving the underlying issues, most notably the central issue of Palestine and ending the occupation, which is the main cause of tensions in the region.
- The prevailing belief among the peoples is that this term is a reproduction of previous colonial concepts and terms, whose goal was to divide the region among the colonial powers, revive Western alliances, and re-implement colonial efforts in the region, reshaping it within a new term that carries a shiny name with malicious goals.
- Implementing the idea of the New Middle East project requires implicit support and acceptance from the international community, which is not available at this stage, especially with the increasing criticism of the policies of the entity and American bias towards it in the region, particularly regarding the ongoing war today or the Palestinian issue, making it difficult for them at this stage.

On the other hand, the impact of the global economic system, capitalist domination, military hegemony, and Western despotism imposed a limited Arab reality in many fields, linking their interests to Western and American interests, widening the gap between the aspirations of the peoples and the rulers who align with the new view of the Middle East without realizing the malicious motives behind it, which could target their countries, security, and economy. They may be aware of this, but American pressure and European intimidation force them to avoid being targeted by American, Western, and Zionist anger.

American policy and its schemes
The continuous events today, from the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, and the major developments that followed, most notably facing the danger that threatens the Zionist entity allied with the Americans and Europeans, in addition to the greater challenge of confronting Iran and its major threats, freed American policy from effective constraints, allowing it the opportunity to secure its interests in the Middle East region through its supportive policies for the entity, under the guise of fighting terrorism, including legitimizing the Zionist entity in the region by forcing Arabs to accept its policies, even at the expense of their issues and Arab identity, achieving the global Zionist goals that serve their colonial settler project in the region and serve the Zionist-American plans, which aim to strike the Arabs and their developmental and civilizational liberation project, prevent any Arab unity, grant the entity the legitimacy of existence, establish political, normalization, and economic relations with the Arab countries, settle the Arab-Israeli conflict according to American and Zionist plans, and achieve political and security stability in the region to serve American policy in making the Middle East a safe area to protect its interests and those of its Zionist ally. These are central, essential gains and goals that they seek to achieve to ensure the hegemony and control of the Zionist entity over the entire region.

 Occupation Crimes

For the twelfth consecutive month, the Zionist entity has been waging a furious war on the Gaza Strip since October 7, 2023, killing more than 41,000 Palestinians, wounding more than 150,000, and destroying 80% of the homes, houses, and infrastructure in Gaza. It has not left a place in Gaza that Zionist tanks have not entered, and warplanes have not bombed. It is continuing without stopping, while its declared goals for the end of the war, which are to eliminate Hamas and return the kidnapped, have not been achieved despite the military force it used and the American and European support accompanied by the green light to practice genocide against civilians, including children, women, and the elderly.

Partial Occupation

This war that Netanyahu seeks to prolong for the sake of personal reconciliation, and for fear of the collapse of his far-right coalition supported by Smotrich and Ben Gvir, who encourage the continuation of the war of extermination and the army's presence in Gaza and its military occupation, to achieve their dream of re-settling Gaza and turning it into a safe security zone for the Zionist army in which it carries out its operations and continuous raids as is happening in the West Bank, and seeking to displace its residents or establish a buffer zone in the north and control the Philadelphi Corridor and the Rafah Crossing in the south and the Netzarim Corridor in the center so that everything entering the Gaza Strip is subject to Zionist inspection and oversight. So the Strip becomes an area surrounded by the entity state from all sides and imposes complete Zionist military and security control over it, the intention of which is for the Zionist army and security to be able to enter whenever it wants. However, it wants any spot in the Gaza Strip, to protect the security of the Zionist state.

Whoever follows the Zionist statements and analyses can see plainly that there is a Zionist intention for a certain military occupation in the Gaza Strip, but its features are not clear yet, nor is its goal, but everyone in the Zionist state confirms that it does not want Hamas to manage the civilian life of the people in the Strip, and therefore another party must take on this task.

The Cost of Complete Control

This war is different from previous wars waged by the Zionist army in Palestine and the region. This is the first time that the entity state has officially declared war in half a century, with goals that confirm the desire to displace the residents of the Gaza Strip and occupy it, and eliminate the Palestinian resistance with all its factions and wings, led by Hamas and Islamic Jihad. However, this requires finding a scenario to manage the Strip after the war if the Zionist army wants to actually occupy it. Even if the occupation succeeds in doing so, its ability to remain in the Strip for a long time is questionable for the following reasons:

- The Gaza Strip has always been a problem and a burden on the entity state. The resistance factions in the Strip have not stopped carrying out attacks on it, and the Zionist army has tried all means to subjugate it. Still, it has not been able to do so, meaning that the military solution has not borne fruit. The complete siege and economic restrictions have not been effective in enabling the Zionist entity to control it.

- Gaza remained a center of resistance due to the great momentum of the resistance movements, specifically the Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements, even after the signing of the Oslo Accords, in which the Palestine Liberation Organization abandoned armed struggle and resistance and began to describe it as terrorism, and thus adopted the approach of peace with the entity state and established security coordination relations that did not succeed in subduing the resistance there.

- The strikes of the Palestinian resistance in Gaza and the war of attrition it imposed against the Zionist army in Gaza, and the operations of storming the settlements there and the operations of running over and bombing are what imposed the equation of the Zionist withdrawal from Gaza in 2005, which was implemented by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and supported by Netanyahu at the time because he considered it the best solution to get out of the quagmire of Gaza and escape its hell, and thus bringing this idea back to mind will require careful consideration of all the aforementioned major challenges that the military occupation of the Gaza Strip will impose once again, and repeating the previous scenario.

- The escalation of the internal Zionist crisis, in addition to the worst thing about it is the loss of a clear vision among the decision-makers in the entity state regarding the best way to deal with the Gaza Strip, as there is no practical and realistic vision regarding the day after the war, and there is no vision that can be imposed to subdue the resistance or prevent Hamas from controlling the Strip and disarming it, nor to provide security for the Gaza envelope areas.

- The exhaustion that the Zionist army is suffering from gives an indication of the extent of the turmoil and confusion that the Zionist political and military establishment is suffering from, a situation accompanied by a disastrous failure in the longest war that the army has fought in its history, so how about a long-term occupation and the army remaining in Gaza in the face of a war of attrition imposed by the resistance in Gaza.

- The large economic cost and the huge sums that the entity state will bear if the occupation of Gaza continues, which will force it to manage the Gaza Strip economically and rebuild it since it does not accept the return of the Palestinian Authority to play its role there.

Serious Repercussions

Therefore, the entity state will seek at this stage to continue its war and control the northern Gaza Strip, up to the Netzarim axis, and displace its residents to the center of the Strip and re-establish Jewish settlement there and annex it, without the need to officially announce this to avoid international opposition, control and economic cost and restore the army's control over humanitarian aid, medicine and food instead of international organizations, and through this control people's lives, and expel the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which it sees as an anti-Zionist project.

In such a situation, with the continuation of the war, killing, destruction, and displacement, Netanyahu and his partners assume that after another winter in tents without basic services or the minimum requirements for human life, two million Palestinians crowded in Rafah, Khan Yunis, and Al-Mawasi will realize that they will not be able to return to their destroyed homes, and it is assumed that despair will incite them against the resistance in Gaza and the rule of "Hamas", and push them to revolt against it or voluntarily emigrate outside the Strip.

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Iyad Al-Qatrawi

Palestinian Professor of Political Science