Uzbekistan.. Between Tyranny and Revolution

What prompted me to write these lines are the reports reaching our ears concerning the oppression still endured by tens of thousands of people of conscience in the wounded Muslim Republic of Uzbekistan. Added to this are the statements made by the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, during his visit to Russia, in which he stressed his deep fear of what he labels terrorism in Afghanistan and his dread that the popular movement seen in the Arab Spring countries might reach his nation, which he has ruled for decades with an iron fist.

Karimov is particularly troubled by the situation in Afghanistan, stating: "No one has declared war on us, but the expansion of terrorism's march is worse than that. These issues are very urgent, and they are knocking on the doors of everyone living in the neighborhood of Afghanistan. What can we do together to face the rapidly growing threat in the region? It is better to preempt this event than to chase its tail," as he put it.

Naturally, these statements did not come out of nowhere. Religious and Islamic life in Muslim Uzbekistan has become intolerable and exceeded all imagination. Fear and persecution reign supreme in every locality across the republic, and this lifestyle continues unabated for decades.

The United States—the sponsor of all who oppose "terrorism"—had its response ready as usual, sharing the fears of the Uzbek "sole leader." Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Robert Blake, stated that "Washington is holding talks regarding the resumption of assistance to Tashkent in its program to bolster its defense and combat terrorism." This means the people will remain under the weight of injustice until proven otherwise.

Despite the economic successes the country has achieved since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and progress in several vital economic sectors after gaining its "independence" from Soviet hegemony like other republics, poverty and hardship remain visible in the streets of Uzbek cities and villages. Furthermore, the number of Uzbek migrants to Russia is steadily increasing, representing one of the largest migrant communities working in public services, construction, and agriculture.

Karimov is concerned with normalizing relations with Russia and the United States due to the declining legitimacy of his regime. After being elected for a second term in 2007, Karimov amended the constitution twice to postpone the elections scheduled for April 2015.

The political risks for Karimov's regime are growing, and conflicts between Karimov's likely successors are intensifying, particularly the feverish rivalry between the President's daughter, Gulnara Karimova, and the President's "right-hand man," First Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Azimov.

Against this backdrop, Karimov understands all the constraints placed upon him in rapprochement with the West, which is unwilling to turn a blind eye to all the very obvious violations of the law in an attempt to maintain control over the country. This contrasts with Russia, which has long proven ready to defend the ruling elite against any attempt at a bottom-up change of power—hence we fully understand the reason behind these statements from Moscow.

Why All This Fear?

The question arises: Why all this fear of neighboring countries and events taking place in distant Arab Spring nations, especially since the man has held all the levers of state power for decades?!

The truth is that the situation in the republic does not inspire confidence. With recurring reports of the President's deteriorating health and his failure to name a successor, the future remains open to many possibilities. On the other hand, regions bordering Afghanistan are witnessing increased activity by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which sponsors armed struggle against the regime. Although the regime in the capital, Tashkent, fights every Islamic manifestation, it takes those armed groups very seriously given Uzbekistan's strategic geopolitical location, the conflict of interests in the republic between Russia on one side and the United States on the other, and the possibility—even theoretically—of using those groups as leverage on the government to gain ground realities.

This is on one hand. On the other hand, there is the Islamization taking place in Uzbek society—which is considered one of the most religiously attached societies—alongside the popular movement that has begun looking toward freedom following the success of the Arab revolutions in the Arab Spring nations.

Expected Scenarios

Another important question for observers concerns the scenarios proposed in light of what we have mentioned. What is certain is that the situation in that cage-like republic will end one day, whether during Islam Karimov's rule or after him!! This is evident from the popular movement we see, the restlessness in the street, and the division of society into two classes separated by a wide gap: the society of officials, statesmen, and the wealthy, versus the majority of the Uzbek people, who grow poorer day by day despite the great wealth possessed by the republic.

We point out here the strange anomaly experienced by all the Islamic republics in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan) and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the southern Caucasus region: all these republics retained the presidents who led them since the communist era, unlike all other Christian republics (Ukraine, Georgia, Russia, and Armenia). Today, there is talk of hereditary succession for sons, as happened in Azerbaijan, even though everyone speaks of "democratic countries" with democratic competition for power.

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Written by:  Ahmed Abdullah

Published in Al-Mujtama Magazine, Issue No. 2055 — Saturday, June 1, 2013