Ethiopia's economy battered by Tigray war

Ethiopia's 10-month civil war has come at a huge human cost, with thousands killed, millions displaced and many in desperate need of assistance.

But that's not the only damage being done to Africa's second most populous nation - the war has incurred a huge economic cost, too, that could take years to repair.

In the capital Addis Ababa, 26-year-old Tigist, who didn't want her full name to be used, says her monthly expenses have doubled for two reasons: the war that broke out in the northern region of Tigray in November and the coronavirus pandemic.

"Before Covid and the conflict, I would pay 1,000 birr [about $22; £16] each month for groceries. Now I spend 2,000 birr," she says. "Things are more expensive now - phones, food and clothes."

Official statistics show the cost of basic consumer goods has indeed gone up in Ethiopia -they were on average around a quarter more expensive in July than a year earlier.

Tigist is working as a supermarket cashier to support her family. She's responsible for the food shopping while her brother covers the rent.

"Also, the dollar exchange has not been good," she adds. "Last year, for $1 you would get 35 birr, now you get 45."

Faisal Roble, a US-based analyst who specialises in the Horn of Africa, says that spending on the war effort "has really negatively impacted Ethiopia's capacity to access dollars", and has caused the exchange rate to deteriorate.

It is not clear how much the war has cost but Trading Economics forecasts military expenditure will reach $502m (£365m) by the end of the year, up from $460m last year.

Last week, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said the conflict had "drained over a billion dollars from the country's coffers".

Prior to the global pandemic and the war, Ethiopia's economy was one of the fastest-growing in the region, expanding by an average of 10% a year in the decade to 2019, according to the World Bank.

The cost of living has risen sharply

While Tigist is referring to the official rate available in banks, the birr has fallen even further in the informal market, Mr Roble says, and has now reached 67 birr against the dollar.

He adds that business owners in the country are nervous about the worsening security situation as the war spreads beyond Tigray and into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara.

Many are draining their accounts and taking their cash to money traders on the border with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, and that's forcing the birr's value to drop even lower, Mr Roble says.

Banks shut in Tigray

The civil war started when the party in power in Tigray, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked federal military bases in November, amidst an escalating feud with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed over the dissolution of the ruling coalition and the postponement of elections.

Since then, Ethiopia's military - as well as its Eritrean allies, state police forces and local militias - have fought a bloody war against Tigrayan fighters.

Both sides have been accused of committing atrocities, including rape and mass civilian killings.

Tigray has been without basic services, including telecommunications and banks, since the federal government instigated a blockade on it in June, after the rebels recaptured the regional capital Mekelle.

War has led to the destruction of many schools and health centres in Tigray

More than 400,000 people in Tigray are already living in famine-like conditions, while aid distribution has been stifled and electricity and fuel supplies are dwindling, pushing prices up.

Mekelle resident Filmon Berhane told BBC Tigrinya that food and rent have recently skyrocketed.

"There is no money as all the banks are closed and government offices are not paying salaries," he said.

Mobile phone auction hit

Internationally, the war is having a huge impact on Ethiopia's reputation as a place to invest, says economist Irmgard Erasmus from the NKC African Economics consultancy group.

"If your consumers are under severe pressure from high inflation, you don't see consumer-driven growth as we see in the US or the Eurozone," she says.

"Generally, that leaves foreign investment to really drive growth, and it's exactly this that's being attacked by reputational risk."

Ms Erasmus points to the recent liberalisation of Ethiopia's telecoms sector, which originally attracted interest from a number of providers, including South African telecoms giant MTN.

In the end though, only one company successfully bid for either of the two telecoms licences on offer, a consortium led by Kenya's Safaricom which pledged $850m.

While rules that initially restricted new license holders from operating a mobile money system dampened investor interest, industry sources say the Tigray conflict also weighed heavily on investors' minds.

Pressure to end war

Ethiopia's overall economic growth for this year is forecast to slow significantly from 6% in 2020 to just 2% in 2021 - the lowest level in almost two decades, according to the IMF.

The country imports about $14bn of goods per year, while it exports just $3.4bn.

Also worrying economic observers is Ethiopia's national debt, which some expect to reach $60bn this year, or nearly 70% of GDP.

"This is a conservative estimate," says Ms Erasmus, adding Ethiopia's military spend could be higher than forecast, and it has taken on unreported debt in the past.

Ethiopians gather at Meskel square, a central road , in Addis Ababa to condemn the Tigray People's Liberation Front fighting for a comeback after it was deposed in 2018 through three years of antigovernment protests in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia on August 8, 2021More

While the US has imposed some visa restrictions on Ethiopians involved in the war, and withheld some spending, so far, the international community has been reluctant to exert maximum economic pressure on the government, or cut generous aid programmes. Around a quarter of the population live below the national poverty line, and the average yearly income is just $850 per person.

"There is clearly scope for ratcheting up the sanctions if Prime Minister Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace prize in 2019, does not deescalate the conflict," says Witney Schneidman a non-resident fellow with the Brookings think-tank in Washington.

The Biden administration's dilemma, says Mr Schneidman, is to put enough pressure on Mr Abiy to end the war without isolating Ethiopia completely.

"All tools are on the table, but you've got 110m people, you can't make the nation a pariah, it's too important, too strategic," he says.

hacklink al hack forum organik hit kayseri escort erotik film izlemarsbahisdeneme bonusu veren siteleropenbook market idMostbet+18 filmcasinolevantdeneme bonusu veren sitelermariobet girişgecelikpijama takımıbetbababetivosultanbet girişbtcbahiscasinomegabetbaba girişdeneme bonusu veren sitelercasino siteleriultrabetGrandpashabettipobet girişselçuksportsonline casinobelugabahis girişlilibet norgelilibet norgeindia online bettingbest online casino indiaMikiカジノ 評判Mikiカジノオンカジ 入金不要ボーナスbelugabahis girişrulet siteleriligobet girişkedicasino levantcasinolevantcasinolevantDeneme Bonusu Veren Siteler 2025Grandpashabetcrypto casinobitcoin casinosbest online casino canadasports betting ontariocanadian online casinocrypto casinosGrandpashabetbetnanobetting sitesonline bettingonline casinonew online casinoPornolk21Roblox Fisch ScriptXeno Executorsweet bonanzadeneme bonusu veren sitelercasibom 771 com trcasibom 771 com trcasibom 771 com trcasibom 771 com trcasibom 771 com trcasibom 771 com girişcasibom 771 com girişholiganbetRoku Bet güncel girişbetturkey girişcasibom girişbetlike girişbetturkey girişhdfilmcehennemigrandpashabetGrandpashabetayvalık zeytinyağıporn izle doedacasibom girişdeneme bonusu veren sitelerElexbetgay pornolarısexpornocasibomcasibomcasibomcasibomaltyazili pornojojobetmeritkingmeritkingaltyazili pornoimajbetbetkanyonbetebetsekabetmadridbet girişultrabetmavibetkulisbet girişmarsbahismarsbahisbetkanyonkulisbet girişnakitbahismadridbet girişbetkanyon girişdumanbet güncel girişbets10romabetbetebetorisbethiltonbettempobetstarzbetaresbetgrandpashabetbetpasbetturkey güncel giriştarafbetgalabet girişmakrobetmakrobet girişgalabet güncel girişbetkanyon güncelbetkanyonmarsbahiscasibom 771 com girisbetkombetkom girişbetkom güncel girişkralbet girişTanıtım Yazısıbetturkeydinamobetimajbet güncelsnaptwittercasibomjojobetmarsbahisjojobet girişbahsegel girişjojobetpiabellacasino girişmeritbet girişfixbet girişcratosslot girişkalebetpusulabetasyabahisdinamobet girişmavibetbetmoontempobet girişhiltonbetvaycasinoonwinjojobettipobet güncel girişjojobettipobet girişjojobetbetebetextrabet girişvaycasino girişultrabet girişnakitbahis güncel girişfixbet girişmariobettipobet güncel giriştipobet güncel girişbahsegelredditdeneme bonusu veren siteler forumcasibombettilt giriş güncelyeni güvenilir casino sitelerisekabetMATADORBET GİRİŞselçuksportstaraftarium24justin tvselçuksportstarabet giriştarabet girişcasinomhubdeneme bonusu veren sitelerbettiltbettiltceltabetasyabahisbetgitmobilbahissu kaçağı tespiticasibom pornoZBAHİSmavibet girişmilanobetkulisbet1xbetcasibomlivebahisonwin 1763grandpashabet2220 commatadorbet750 combetparkcasibom 771 com girişfixbet twitterfixbetfixbet girişlivebahislivebahislivebahislivebahisvaycasinoiptv satışcanlı yeni casino siteleriyeni canlı casino siteleri 2025yeni güvenilir casino siteleritipobet güncel giriş1314bets10imajbet1475454 marsbahissekabet1273 comcasibom 771 com girişbettilt casinoNakitbahisamexgiftcard/balancepopüler bahis siteleripaslanmaz çelikcasibomsetrabetTarafbetbahis siteleritoy poodlejojobetbetturkeyjojobetbethandhdfilmcehennemiextrabetSekabet girişbetpark girişbahisseninkolaybet girişimajbet girişbetpark girişdumanbet girişbettiltbettilt güncelcanlı casino siteleriAtlasbetmarsbahisgate of olympus oynaAtlasbet GirişAtlasbet Girişfree instagram followersinstagram takipçi hilesiboşmarsbahisdeneme bonusu veren sitelermarsbahisdeneme bonusu, bedava deneme bonusu veren sitelerTipobet Girişcasinomhub girişbetpark yeni girişyeni güvenilir bahis siteleriyeni casino siteleri 2025güvenilir bahis siteleri 2025Esenyurt EscortotobetZBAHİSpadişahbetprimebahisBetkanyonsportazabettiltprimebahisimajbetimajbetbetbigo girişcasibom güncel girişaydin escortmanisa escortvaycasinobetebetdeneme bonusuradissonbetatlasbetcasibomcasibom girişbahiscasinobetgarantiboştaraftarium24 canlı maç izleprime bahisradissonbetcasibomkaçak maç izlecanlı maç izlegüvenilir casino sitelerien güvenilir casino siteleriolabahis girişbasari betprimebahisterea sigaraelektronik sigarabetturkeyotobetcasibomcasibom girişvaycasino girişparibahis girişbahis sitelericasibomSakarya escortSakarya escortprimebahisiptvcasibomcasibomSekabet giriştwidropperbahiscasinobetriyalkingroyalcasibom girişcasibom girişcasibomDeneme Bonusu Veren Siteler 2025casino siteleribahis siteleriprostadine on amazon​free porn deneme bonusu veren sitelerfixbetbetgaranticasibom 719 com girişcasibom 771 com trfixbetgrandpashabet먹튀위크tarafbetsekabetsekabet güncelcasinolevant girişholiganbetBlox Fruits Scriptroblox executoraresbetmeritbet girişcasinomhub güncel girişhd film izleBetgarantiExtrabetBetparkizmir escortSnaptikvevobahismatadorbetfixbet girişkralbetCasibomdinimi porn virin sex sitilirimatbet바카라사이트 네임드바카라사이트 카지노사이트Kralbetcasibom girişcasibomsahabetcasibomcasibom güncel girişStake TürkiyeStake TrStake Girişİzmir Escortcasibomtipobetdinamobetbetturkeyrestbetrestbet girişultrabetfixbetpinbahispinbahis girişotobet girişholiganbetpadişahbetbetleybetdinamobetcasibomdinimi porn virin sex sitiliriAwp ExecutorKing Legacy ScriptDelta Executorgamdomjojobetfixbetmatadorbet twittertipobetgrandpashabetgrandpashabet güncel girişkulisbetcasibomholiganbetimajbetmatadorbet twitterkulisbetmostbetcasinolevantbahisbetaistanbul escortEXTRABETpremiumbahis pusulabet taksimbettarafbet faulbet wonoddmeritkingkralbettipobetcasibomcasibomrulet oyna, slot oynazbahiszbahis girişzbahis twitterTipobetgüvenilir slot sitelerivbetmarsbahis girişjojobetmarsbahismarsbahis güncel girişjojobet güncel girişjojobet girişbetcioen iyi su arıtma cihazıbettiltcratosslotrüyabetrüyabet girişrüyabet güncelgrandbettingZBAHİSfooter link satın almatbetmatbet girişfirma platformuSekabetpadişahbetpadişahbetsaveinstaroyalbet resmi girişroyalbet twitterroyalbetgalabetxslotxslot girişxslot twitterbetgarbetgar twitterbetgar resmi girişromabetmarsbahisromabet girişromabet güncel girişparibahisbetkombetkom twitterbetkom güncel giriş adresicasibomparibahisjojobetmomo reismomo reis sitecasibom girişkralbetmarsbahisjojobettempobetiptv satın alip tvimajbetmatbetonwinonwin girişjojobetjojobet girişjojobetpiabetwww.giftcardmall.com/mygiftwww.giftcardmall.com/mygiftgiftcardmall/mygiftgiftcardmall/mygifthalkalı escortwww.giftcardmall.com/mygiftamexgiftcard/balancewww.giftcardmall.com/mygiftonwinmarsbahismarsbahiscasibom 771jojobetonwincasibomgrandpashabetgrandpashabet girişjojobetJojobet Mobil - Jojobet Güncel Giriş - Jojobet 2025