Will Erdoğan Run for the Presidency Again?

Official Statements on Erdoğan’s Potential Candidacy

In the most prominent direct official statement, Mehmet Ucum, the legal adviser to the Turkish President, said that the President—and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)—Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “may run in early presidential elections” in the country.

Erdoğan’s ally, Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), previously said the People’s Alliance candidate for the presidential elections is Erdoğan himself. This was supported by AKP spokesman Ömer Çelik, in addition to other similar statements from both parties.

Distinctive Features of the Recent Statement

What distinguishes the latest statement are two things:

First: It pointed to the idea of holding the upcoming presidential elections early, whereas previous statements had been talking about the presidential elections in general.

As for the second: The legal adviser set a preliminary date for the elections, which is April 2028, whereas some estimates were discussing earlier dates if brought forward from their primary date in 2028.

Constitutional Constraints and Options

The reason for Ucum’s remarks is that the Turkish Constitution does not allow President Erdoğan to run normally in the upcoming presidential elections, as he has exhausted his right to two presidential terms following the transition to the presidential system in the country. He won the presidential elections in 2018 and then in 2023. Erdoğan was also elected president of the country in 2014 under the parliamentary system, a term that was not counted (reset to zero) with the constitutional amendment to transition to the presidential system in 2017.

Accordingly, the constitutional way out that could allow Erdoğan the opportunity to run for the presidency again lies in one of two paths: either a constitutional amendment or early elections.

In the first case, a new constitution or a constitutional amendment could establish a new era and stipulate presidential terms in a manner that transcends what preceded, as happened in the 2017 constitutional amendment, which stipulated the transition to the presidential system and the right to the presidency for two consecutive terms starting from the adoption of the amendment, superseding what came before.

In the second case, constitutionally, the President and the Parliament have the right to call for early elections. If the President calls for early elections, his presidential term is counted in full, so he does not have the right to run again if he is in his second term. Conversely, if the Parliament calls for early elections, this is considered a deduction from the President’s right to complete his term, which allows him to run again even if he is in his second presidential term.

Parliamentary Thresholds and Political Alliances

Passing a new constitution or a constitutional amendment requires the approval of two-thirds of the members of Parliament—that is, 400 out of 600—while passing it through Parliament to a public referendum requires a 60% majority, or 360 deputies. The same proportion (60%) is required to bring elections forward through Parliament.

In both cases, neither the AKP nor the "People’s Alliance" possesses this proportion of deputies in Parliament. However, with the support of other parties, it can surpass this ratio. Here, the importance of the "Kurdish" Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) emerges, which recently coordinated with the government regarding the resolution of the Kurdish issue and ending the problem of terrorism, or what has been called the "Turkey Without Terrorism Project."

Choosing the Early Elections Path

Because the path of amending the constitution or drafting a new constitution is technically harder, longer in time, and not guaranteed to succeed due to its additional complexities, the expected option for the AKP is to go for early presidential and parliamentary elections by having Parliament call for them. It will then need to obtain the approval of 360 deputies, which seems possible through the People’s Alliance and the "Kurdish" party, and perhaps other parties as well. Some opposition parties were not opposed to this idea in principle; rather, some were demanding it to embarrass Erdoğan and outbid him, claiming the ability to defeat him electorally.

Electoral Factors and Opposition Weakness

Naturally, the outcome of the presidential elections, let alone the parliamentary ones, cannot be predicted from now. That requires an evaluation of the candidates’ names, their electoral programs, their chances, and their street presence, in addition to the domestic and foreign political and economic circumstances under which the elections will be held, which could affect their results, among other factors not available today.

Despite that, it can be said: President Erdoğan today is in his best condition compared to the last few years, including the 2023 elections. The opposition today is much more divided and weaker than before, and Erdoğan’s potential rival, the Mayor of Greater Istanbul Ekrem İmamoğlu, is detained and on trial for several cases, with a ruling issued against him in one of them that prevents him from running due to a clause banning political activity.

Conversely, some significant domestic and regional developments have played in the man's favor, led by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the integration of the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF) into Syrian state institutions, in parallel with the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey and the closing of the terrorism file to a large extent, as well as the relative stability the country is experiencing despite numerous global and regional wars and conflicts.

Symbolism and Timing of the Suggested Date

Finally, it was notable that President Erdoğan’s legal adviser specified in his statement a potential date for the early presidential and parliamentary elections: April 16, 2028. This date carries two important significances:

First: It is the exact date on which the popular referendum on the constitutional amendment that shifted the country to the presidential system was held, on April 16, 2017. This is an important symbolic significance that the AKP is keen on, as the approval of the amendment in the referendum was an electoral victory for it, and because Erdoğan was the one who won the presidential elections that followed the referendum.

Second: Estimates pointed to the summer of 2027 as a potential date for early elections, whereas the currently proposed date is April 2028, just one month before the official date of the elections. This means it will not practically deduct from Erdoğan’s presidential term except for a few weeks, even though theoretically and officially he will be considered a president who did not complete his term because Parliament is the entity requesting the early date.

 In conclusion, the statement by Erdoğan’s adviser moves the topic of the latter running again for the presidency from the realm of speculation to the square of confirmation, from the ambiguity of the means to its determination, and from general early elections to a specific date. What remains in the foreseeable future is to monitor the political path upon which Parliament’s ability to pass the request for early elections by the required percentage mentioned above will be built.