Post-Sanctions Syria: Opportunities and Obstacles

More than six months have passed since the blessed Syrian Revolution's resounding historical victory, marked by the fall of the Assad regime and the Syrian people's regaining of their freedom, dignity, and independence. They paid a heavy price for this over 14 years, indeed more than four decades, during which this criminal regime oppressed the Syrians.

Even though visitors to Damascus and other cities can still sense some aspects of the decades-long tragedy, clearly visible in the city's grim building walls and the air heavy with the smell of exhaust fumes from generators, the new reality of Syrians enjoying liberation from the overthrown tyrant's regime and its supporters now alleviates all those hardships, heralding a bright future.

In daily conversations among Syrians, whether inside or outside the country, the immense hopes placed on the new Syrian transitional government are evident. This government, propelled by significant popular support gained from leading the liberation achievement, is focused on advancing this nascent state, rising from under the rubble, destruction, and devastation, towards a new horizon filled with promising opportunities and a bright future.

Obstacles to a Hopeful Future

However, this anticipated future faces extremely serious and significant obstacles and challenges that affect the core of Syrians' lives and the principles and aspirations for which their great revolution was fought.

Perhaps these challenges revolve around fundamental principles: rebuilding Syria—its people and its infrastructure. Foremost among these is establishing and maintaining security throughout the country, with justice (including transitional justice) as its unique means, and the ultimate goal of achieving a civil peace society where individuals feel safe and belong, thus enabling them to contribute and participate in construction.

Ensuring a Dignified Life

In parallel, ensuring a dignified life for the Syrian people, commensurate with their sacrifices and historical suffering, involves improving all aspects of their daily lives—food, drink, clothing, and job opportunities—worthy of the exorbitant prices they paid while standing alone against the fierce war waged by the regime and its allies, which extended to all aspects of life. Now, it is their right to quickly and immediately reap the fruits of their blessed revolution.

Sanctions on Syria: A Timeline

The economic file has recently become strongly present, even dominant over other issues, in all movements related to Syrian affairs over the past months, finally culminating in the lifting of economic sanctions imposed on the country, especially by the United States and also by the European Union.

Years of repression have exhausted the Syrian economy and depleted its resources to such an extent that the United Nations, in a report issued last February, estimated the total losses to the gross domestic product at about $800 billion, a significant portion of which is attributed to the multifaceted sanctions regime.

The Evolution of US Sanctions

Although Syria has a long history with US sanctions, starting in 1979 when it was included on the first list created by the United States for what it called "state sponsors of terrorism," the real turning point came after the outbreak of the Syrian Revolution in 2011, with the increasing pace of government repression. This culminated in the imposition of more comprehensive and stringent sanctions targeting vital sectors such as oil, gas, aviation, and the banking sector, including the central bank, as well as restrictions on the export of essential goods and technology to Syria.

Finally, after a long period of anticipation and efforts by friendly and sisterly countries, the United States lifted (or eased) economic sanctions on the country in May 2025, in what was described as a major shift in US policy after the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. This theoretically opens the door for new investments and pushes the wheel of economic recovery, paving the way for the reconstruction phase, which the United Nations estimates will cost more than $400 billion.

The Reality of Sanctions Lifting: Caveats and Challenges

However, despite the widespread welcome and praise for the lifting of sanctions, amid hopes and aspirations that these decisions will quickly reflect on the Syrian reality, the true economic effects of the sanctions lifting will not be felt for months, amidst a set of caveats and challenges that must be noted and taken into account.

"Lifting" or "Easing"? The Significance of Terminology

Among these challenges is some ambiguity that shrouded the statements of American officials regarding the decision, which was not dispelled by the text of the US Treasury decision. It used phrases that suggest the temporary, partial, or gradual nature of this lifting.

We note in the text of the US Treasury Department's decision regarding the lifting of sanctions, under the description "license," that the United States announced an "additional exemption" from sanctions on "certain activities" in Syria "over the next six months" to facilitate access to essential services.

The decision also stated that the State Department simultaneously issued an "exemption" under the Caesar Act for the protection of civilians in Syria, which will allow foreign partners, allies, and the region to widely open the door to Syrian potential.

The decision also stated that this step "is merely a drop in the ocean of broader efforts by the US government to remove the entire sanctions framework imposed on Syria due to the Bashar al-Assad regime's violations," implying that the path to a full lifting of sanctions is still long.

Conditional Lifting and US Demands

Among the risks and caveats is the duality of action and reaction; that is, the lifting of sanctions in exchange for expected prices and demands. Returning to the statements of American officials, foremost among them President Donald Trump, we find many indications that Syria must implement certain demands. So, what are the matters or commitments that Syria is required to provide, or has already provided?

According to the US Treasury Department, the lifting of sanctions is conditioned on the new government not providing a safe haven for "terrorist" organizations and ensuring the security of religious and ethnic minorities. Other Western officials also speak of the importance of forming a government that represents all Syrian factions and protects minorities.

Unifying the Country and Facing the Dangers of Division

Another important challenge facing the Syrian government is the challenge of unifying the country under its central authority, including areas rich in natural and animal resources, such as those under the control of separatist organizations that control vast areas in the north and east of the country, including the most prominent oil and gas fields whose resources the new authority in Damascus needs.

The lifting of US sanctions is conditioned on the new government not providing a safe haven for "terrorist" organizations and ensuring the security of minorities.

An agreement signed by President Ahmed Al-Sharaa with the commander of the so-called "Syrian Democratic Forces," Mazloum Abdi, on March 11, 2025, included several provisions, the most prominent of which stipulated the integration of all civilian and military institutions in northeastern Syria into the Syrian state administration, including border crossings, the airport, and oil and gas fields, with its full implementation expected by the end of the year.

Challenges to Unification and Reconstruction

However, it seems that the country still faces tremendous difficulties in this area, with separatist organizations insisting on the demand for decentralized pluralism in the management of the political system in Syria, while Damascus responds by confirming its rejection of attempts to impose a divisive reality in the country.

Analysts and experts expect an increase in the pace of infrastructure reconstruction, such as roads, hospitals, and schools. However, other important sectors, most notably energy and the banking sector, require major investments and much longer time to be effectively realized, in a process that may take several more months.

Energy Infrastructure and Funding Needs

The new authorities, who hope to attract investments in various sectors, especially energy, face a real problem: the extent of severe damage to the electricity infrastructure, where power outages have reached more than 20 hours a day in many areas.

Two-thirds of the network is either completely destroyed or in need of major repairs. The Ministry of Energy currently estimates the repair bill at up to $5.5 billion, funds that the state does not possess, meaning there is a need to seek private investment or other donors.

The Attractive Environment and the Challenge of Inherited Values

As a result of the absence of an encouraging investment environment that attracts investors and capital, and the severe damage to service facilities and infrastructure, economic experts believe that lifting sanctions alone will not be enough to push the recovery process forward, which will take a long time.

In the face of this, the authorities must prepare an investment-friendly environment and transparency in signing huge investment contracts, while no new investment laws have yet been issued, and no economic reforms have been announced, after decades in which corruption corroded institutions and contributed to the deterioration of the business environment.

Addressing Corruption and Financial Integration

The country also continues to suffer from the deep effects of the moral and value destruction and corruption of the Syrian individual and society, where values of corruption, bribery, and nepotism prevailed for decades, making Syria under Assad at the bottom of international indicators regarding transparency and among the most corrupt countries in the world.

Years of long repression isolated the country's economy and its banking system from the world, hindering commercial movement and the flow and transfer of funds between inside and outside, where the process of officially transferring money abroad has become an impossible task, under threat of Western sanctions against anyone dealing with Syrian financial institutions and entities.

Reconnecting with the Global Banking Sector

To address this, the process of reconnecting the Syrian banking system to the global banking sector requires taking measures at several levels.

Citizens hope that the lifting of sanctions will put an end to transferring money through the black market to avoid losing about 30% of the transferred amount, and that the transfer process will become a "click of a button" as is the case worldwide.

Authorities must prepare an investment-friendly environment, transparency in contract signing, and issue new investment laws.

In a related context, the country also suffers from a severe deficiency in digital infrastructure, making its internet connectivity among the worst in the world. Many users are forced to rely on expensive mobile data instead of wireless connectivity to perform basic online tasks.

The Return of Refugees and Displaced Persons

Among the difficult challenges awaiting the government is the return of more than two million Syrian refugees and displaced persons to their original areas, from within Syria and abroad, especially from neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimated in June 2025 that more than 500,000 Syrians have returned from abroad, while about 13.5 million Syrians remain refugees or displaced.

The return of additional large numbers of these people is hampered by a set of obstacles, including the extent of destruction and dilapidated or unavailable infrastructure, in addition to the lack of economic opportunities and basic services that prevent return, according to estimates by the International Organization for Migration.

Regional Conflicts and Geopolitical Tensions

Since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, the Zionist entity has launched hundreds of strikes on military sites in Syria, under the pretext of preventing the military arsenal from falling into the hands of the new authorities. Its forces have also encroached into the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan, located on the edges of the part it occupies of the Syrian plateau, and its forces advance from time to time into areas deep in southern Syria.

The Zionist entity has also recently been embroiled in an escalating conflict with Iran, which is feared to flare up and extend at any time to other areas in the already turbulent region, threatening the prospects of hoped-for recovery in the region in general, and in Syria in particular.

Positive Impacts: Investments, Projects, and Support

When discussing opportunities and optimistic expectations, we find, for example, that just hours after Trump announced his intention to lift sanctions, the exchange rates of the Syrian pound significantly improved, even if this improvement was temporary and fell within the framework of the psychological and political impact of lifting sanctions.

Boosting the Banking Sector and Foreign Investment

According to analysts and economic experts, the banking sector will be most affected by the lifting of sanctions, which will also open the door to foreign investment. It also gives supporting countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, a green light to start injecting funds and providing financial support.

Regional Financial Support

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan affirmed during his recent visit to Damascus that his country would be at the forefront of nations supporting Syria in its reconstruction and economic recovery process, noting that Riyadh and Qatar would provide financial support to the public sector. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also paid Syria's outstanding debts to the World Bank, amounting to approximately $15 million.

In this context, a memorandum of understanding in the energy sector was also prominent, signed at the end of last May with a consortium of four foreign companies, including a Qatari one, worth $7 billion, which was considered one of the largest announced investment projects.

Outlook: A Long Road to Recovery

In conclusion, it can be said that despite several challenges and obstacles, Syrians are very optimistic about the positive impact that the lifting of sanctions can have on their country's economy and livelihoods. Although full recovery will undoubtedly take many years, the lifting of sanctions represents a first step on this path and provides many anticipated opportunities.

However, the real hopes pinned – after God Almighty – are derived from the Syrian people, this people who, as we said, stood firm like towering mountains against the most vicious criminal machine of the modern era for decades. Just as they snatched their freedom and dignity from the jaws of those savage forces, they are capable, God willing, with their determination and persistence, of moving forward in achieving their hopes and aspirations for a prosperous and bright future.

 By: Musab Al-Nasser