Can Geneva Talks Open a Path to Ending War in Sudan?

In a rare diplomatic opening amid one of Africa’s most destructive conflicts, the United Nations has announced plans to bring Sudan’s warring parties to the negotiating table in Geneva. The initiative, confirmed by UN Secretary‑General António Guterres during an interview with Al Arabiya in Riyadh, signals a renewed attempt to revive a peace process that has repeatedly collapsed since the war erupted in April 2023.

The announcement comes as Sudan faces a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian and security landscape, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) expanding their territorial control and more than 12 million people displaced—one of the largest displacement crises in the world, according to UN estimates.

  From Fragile Partnership to Full‑Scale War

The conflict began when tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF escalated into open warfare. According to UN data, the war has resulted in:

• Tens of thousands of deaths
• Over 12 million displaced people
• Near‑total collapse of essential services
• A looming famine threatening millions

Sudan has now become one of the world’s most severe humanitarian emergencies.

Why Now?  

Guterres stated that the goal is to reopen communication channels after months of military stalemate. He told Al Arabiya:

“We will be having meetings in Geneva with both sides.”

However, he did not specify a timeline, reflecting the fragility of the political environment.

In New York, UN spokesperson Farhan Haq confirmed that the talks will begin at a technical level, describing them as essential groundwork for broader negotiations.

Darfur as a Flashpoint: The Catalyst for International Alarm

Global concern intensified in October after reports of mass atrocities in El‑Fasher, the army’s last stronghold in Darfur, which fell to the RSF after an 18‑month siege. Guterres said the UN had been promised access to the city “very soon,” though communications remain cut, with reports that RSF forces have restricted access to Starlink services.

In a striking statement, Guterres said:

“Nobody behaves well, but there is one side that clearly is committing atrocities of the worst character, and that’s the RSF.”

Saudi‑American Diplomacy Returns to Center Stage

Guterres’ announcement followed his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, where Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its role as a key mediator. Momentum increased last month when U.S. President Donald Trump said he would help end the conflict after the crown prince urged him to intervene during a visit to Washington.

Saudi Arabia is part of the Quad—alongside the United States, Egypt, and the UAE—seen by Washington as the group with the greatest leverage over Sudan’s rival generals.

Field Realities Undermine Political Efforts

Despite diplomatic movement, violence persists. Darfur Governor Mini Arko Minnawi accused the RSF of looting a major marketplace in Nyala, according to Sudanese media reports. He described the attack as part of a deliberate campaign targeting traders from specific ethnic groups to impoverish and displace them.

The RSF did not respond to the allegations. Nyala has been under RSF control since October 2023 and now hosts the Sudan Founding Alliance, a political coalition that announced a parallel government led by RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).

A Fragmented Map: A Country Split Between Two Powers

Current territorial control reflects deep political and geographic fragmentation:

• RSF controls all five Darfur states (except pockets in northern North Darfur).
• The army controls most of the south, east, north, and central regions, including the capital, Khartoum.

This division complicates any attempt to reach a comprehensive political settlement.

Can Geneva Talks Succeed? Assessing the Prospects

Despite the significance of the initiative, several obstacles remain:

1.      Deep mistrust between the two sides

2.     Fragmented command structures within both SAF and RSF

3.     Regional actors whose interests may support or hinder negotiations

4.    A worsening humanitarian crisis that pressures the international community but not necessarily the military leaders

Still, even a technical‑level meeting represents a modest breakthrough in a stalled peace process.

  Sudan at a Crossroads between Prolonged War and a New Diplomatic Path

The UN’s renewed push reflects growing recognition that continued fighting could lead to total state collapse with severe regional consequences. However, the success of the Geneva talks will depend on:

• The UN’s ability to bring both sides to the table
• Support from the Quad
• Reduction of violence on the ground
• Genuine political will from Sudan’s military leaders

For now, the signals are mixed—but the diplomatic window, as Guterres described it, remains “narrow but open.”

Sources:

• Interview with UN Secretary‑General António Guterres on Al Arabiya
• Statements by UN spokesperson Farhan Haq (New York)
• Sudanese media reports on events in Nyala
• Facebook statements by Darfur Governor Mini Arko Minnawi
• Field assessments of territorial control across Sudan
• Meeting between Guterres and Saudi Crown Prince in Riyadh